I have recently seen some John McCain partisans rambling about his 82% (or 85% or some other number) lifetime average from the American Conservative Union*. My response has been a uniform "So what?"

Let us come up with one extreme example:

During the year 2009 there are 20 bills up for a vote. 19 trade bills and the "Confiscate all wealth and give it to poor starving disabled kiddies" bill. If McCain is in the senate then (and how I PRAY he is in the senate rather than the White House!), let us imagine he votes against increasing tariffs 19 times, but then votes to give all our money to poor disabled kiddies.

By the ACU he has a 95% conservative voting record.

Of course, that is an extreme example, but it does show how useless ACU ratings can be.

McCain voted for one of the LEAST conservative measures ever, campaign finance reform. Not only did he vote for it, he sponsored it, AND put his name on it! But that counts as only one non-conservative vote.

Which is the number one problem with ACU ratings, every vote is equal in figuring the ACU rating, so a VERY harmful bill weighs equally to a trivial bill. Meaning McCain could vote liberal on 1 of every 20 bills, but, if they are the right bills, make a much more liberal than conservative impact while still rating conservative.

Nor is that all. There are also ways to "game" the system.

For example, rather than vote for a liberal bill, he can find a real conservative, who would cancel his liberal vote, and both agree to vote "present". This prevents McCain from having his "conservative" record tarnished, while still having the effect of McCain voting to the left.

Or, he can vocally adopt a very left wing position, putting all of his power behind it, to try to influence others to vote on the liberal side, yet, when it becomes obvious he will lose, he can then shift to the other side, and still get credit for voting "conservative" even though he spent 99% of his time on the other side.

So, when I hear how the ACU numbers "show" McCain is a "real conservative" I just shake my head. Yes, he may have learned how to make the numbers say that, but they really show very little of his true nature.

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* For an example see Cynic2007's comments on this column.
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UPDATED 01/26/2008

Just to point out one other flaw in this theory that the ACU rating proves McCain is conservative, I would mention that McCain's ratings dropped significantly in 2006.

I found ratings for 2006 (65) , 2005 (80), and 2004 (72). As the 2005 page gives his lifetime average as 83 and the 2006 page gives it as 82.3, it is apparent, not only is his average dropping, but his 2006 performance was WELL below his average, and well below a number of his fellow senators.

So, it appears, even if we give the ACU numbers credence (and I explain above why that may be a mistake) they still show a man who had a very conservative early career and has recently taken a quite liberal turn. Of course, McCain has spent over two decades in the senate, so, assuming he had an average of 82 for 21 years, he could have scored 0 for the last 3 listed years (2004-2006) and still score 71.75*. Which makes the lifetime average a bit misleading as an indicator of current behavior.

Given that, his 82.3 lifetime average (excluding 2007)** seem more an indication of a senator who once espoused strongly conservative positions but does no longer, rather than a sign of a continuing commitment to conservative causes.

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* This is based upon McCain's reported 24 years of service as of 2006, along with his reported lifetime average of 82.3 in 2006. For simplicity I have rounded that down to 82 for each of his first 21 years. I then assumed a 0 score for 2004, 2005 and 2006 to see how high his average would remain:

82*21 = 1722
1722 / 24 = 71.75

Using 83 (his average from 2005) gives an even more conservative seeming 72.625. And, in actuality, his average for his first 21 years was certainly even higher than that, as the 83 is after averaging in the 72 for 2004 and the 80 for 2005. Which means prior to 2004 his lifetime average was 83.67 :

83 * 23 = 1909
1909 -  72 - 80 = 1757
1757 / 21 = 83.67

Using 83.67, and assuming 0 scores for 2004-2006 we get a score of  73.2 :

83.67 * 21 = 1757
1757 / 24 =  73.2

So, had McCain had an ACU score of 0 for every year from 2004 through 2006, he would still have an ACU lifetime average of 73.2, which makes his 82 sound a little less impressive.

** Please note that his 82.3 also excludes 2007. I can't recall off the top of my head what votes came up in 2007, and I am sure campaigning kept McCain form voting as much in 2007 as in most years, but it is quite possible that the 82.3 will drop still lower after 2007 is analyzed by the ACU.

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