With Florida behind us and the apparent front runners now crowned, I suppose it is time to write some thoughts about the upcoming general election.

First, to state the obvious, it appears this will probably be a McCain-Clinton match*. Not that I am writing off either Romney or Obama (or Huckabee, I suppose), but the media is, and as the media goes, so go the votes. So, though there are plenty of votes left to overturn the media decree, I doubt it will happen. As I stated in an article several months ago about reforming the primaries, the first few states really do decide everything, and later states should not even bother with primaries. (And, just to appease the Ron Paul supporters, to make up for all the other things I say about their candidate, there are enough votes left to nominate Ron Paul as well, though I doubt that will happen either.)

So, being saddled with McCain as our nominee, what are the prospects?

I know conventional wisdom is that the country is "ready for a change" after Bush, but I find that a bit simplistic. McCain is hardly a Bush hanger-on, nor is this "anti-Bush feeling" really translating into mass hatred of Republicans. Yes, 2006 saw some Republicans lose, but mainly because the Democrats ran to the right of them and tapped into alienated conservative independents, not because of a general anti-Republican sentiment. (If you doubt me, look at the number of young, conservative Democrats elected in 2006. Explain how that translates into anti-Republican, or anti-conservative sentiment.)

So, if I don't think the anti-Bush feeling will carry the day, what will?

Well, first, let us dismiss the general thought that "McCain is too left". Yes, a bit of the Republican base will sit out the election because McCain is a "RINO" (Republican In Name Only), but I don't think it will be a significant factor. Yes, the Republicans talk a fair game about sitting it out to "send a message" or "teach a lesson", but most have enough sense (I hope) to remember 2006, and how sitting out an election almost got us amnesty, did kill the border fence (de facto, if not de jure), and generally did more harm than good. And, even after "sending a message" in 2006, we still got a "RINO" nominee. So, I think the desire to sit it out to "send a message" will be dampened a bit by the understanding that message should be sent in primaries, not general elections. But even more than that, one other factor will bring out the base.

What is that?

The one deciding factor in the election: Fear of Hillary.

Nor will it only bring out the Republican base. Even 50% of Democrats can't stand Hillary.** (Even my ultra-liberal mother hates the woman.) Among conservatives and moderates, I think, regardless of their feelings about McCain, many voters are sufficiently worried at the prospect of Hillary that they will turn out to vote against her.*** It may not be enough to turn out the whole Republican base, some may still sit it out, but without even the full Democrat party behind her, I don't think Hillary can gather enough support to win.

So, in my mind, for what it is worth, I see a slow, dull race between a despised, polarizing figure and a somewhat irritable, mostly bland "centrist". Neither has much support within their own party, but Hillary is sufficiently hated to bring out Republicans and independents (and even some Democrats) to vote against her, and in great enough numbers that I see the race going to McCain.

And so we are looking at a McCain presidency in 2008. And, given the McCain-Feingold Incumbency Protection Act (AKA "campaign finance reform"), probably in 2012 as well.

It is not exactly the outcome for which I hoped at the start of the primary season (way back in 2006), but it is not the worst possible outcome. McCain may pick a decent VP and give us someone to support in 2016. Also, by yanking a few RINO buddies for cabinet positions, he will open up some seats in congress for real conservatives. And, whatever else anyone may think, as I have said before, if we survived 8 years of "compassionate conservatives" we can survive 8 more of a "maverick Republican".

And there is always 2016.


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* The fact that Edwards withdrew definitely seems to indicate that Hillary will get the nod, as I can't see Edwards' supporters going over to Obama. In addition, I think Democrats realize that Obama is a lightweight, and, no matter how much Hillary turns off some voters, they have more chance with her than with an inexperienced newcomer.

** The Michigan votes for "undecided" seem to support the position that somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of Democrats dislike Hillary enough to withhold their votes in a general election.

*** There is also the fear and disgust at the thought of Bill Clinton returning to the white house, which bothers not just Republicans but many independents and some Democrats. This is hard to quantify, but it will surely translate into some additional votes for McCain.