Posted by
Andrews on Friday, February 01, 2008 11:00:31 AM
I have recently heard many saying "I am a conservative first and a Republican second". They usually follow this by stating that they will refuse to vote for McCain. The logic is always one of two theories. Either that by not voting for McCain they will let the party know it needs to nominate real conservative candidate or that by putting Hillary or Obama into office, the Democrats will be blamed for the left-wing policies rather than the Republicans.
However, I would argue, that by doing that, the speakers are actually proving that they ARE Republicans first and conservatives second. In my mind, worrying about the electoral outcomes, rather than the effect on the nation as a whole, shows that one is putting party ahead of the nation, making the speaker a Republican first.
Now, if anyone reading thinks "there is no difference between McCain and the Democrats", then stop now. The rest of my article is predicated upon an agreement that, while he is quite far to the left, that McCain is still at least one step right of the Democrat candidates.
Assuming that McCain is even 1% better than his Democrat opponent, then not voting for McCain is to allow the country to be worse off. Many will say that it is worth the harm if we get a true conservative in the future, or if it allows the Democrats to be blamed rather than the Republicans, but I would argue that , especially the latter, is putting party concerns ahead of the nation. Yes, if we allow additional harm to come to the nation it may later benefit the Republican party, but at what cost? Is it not better to reduce our harm now rather than wager on future gains for the party?
Also, I still doubt the reasoning of those voicing these opinions.
First, there is no reason to assume sitting out this election will push the Republicans to the right. Sitting out 2006 did not give us a conservative presidential nominee did it? No, as I was predicting, the party decided that, since leftists won, the Republicans need to move to the center. So, why would it work this time? Maybe if we do not support McCain we will end up with someone even farther to the left next time. To allow Hillary 4 or 8 years on the off chance that it might push the party right seems a losing bet.
Second, there is no reason to assume the Republicans will escape blame. Even with a Democrat president and Democrat majority in congress, the Republicans will still be to blame for everything. If something doesn't work, it will be because of "Republican obstructionism". Or, as I have pointed out before, the spin will suddenly change. Recall that, while Bush had "unemployment soar to 5%", Clinton "lowered unemployment to an unprecedented 5%". So just because conditions don't improve under Hillary don't expect any blame. Far more likely the media will suddenly discover the joys of austerity and Hillary will become the saint of "doing more with less." The theory that letting Hilary win will shift blame for failures forgets that the MSM is very good at running interference for Democrats.
But even assuming those theories WERE right, is it still worth it? Even if we got the second coming of Goldwater or Reagan in 2012, is it worth giving Hillary or Obama 4 unchallenged years in office? As I keep saying, Wilson made changes that are still doing harm almost 100 years later. FDR's schemes have set the terms of political debate for over half a century. Even Carter did damage from which we are still recovering. (For that matter, Nixon's ill-conceived price controls are a big part of the reason we are so dependent on foreign oil.)
One bad president, in even 4 years, can do a lot of harm.
Not that I think McCain will be a great president, or will even do no harm. I just think he will do less harm than Hillary or Obama. And so, for the sake of the US, not for the Republican Party, if McCain is nominated, I will have to vote for him, little as it pleases me.
UPDATED 02/01/2008I forgot to mention that I addressed this same topic previously in
"Jacob Frank and Hillary Clinton" as well as in some notes to
"Quick Thoughts On The Election". Just in case you wanted to see my earlier thoughts on what to do should a situation such as this arise.