Posted by
Andrews on Tuesday, February 26, 2008 4:14:47 PM
I know I have been harping on this topic for some time, but I have one final argument for those who are considering sitting out the election.
Agreed that McCain is pretty far to the left for a Republican, and he has shown that he will often make decisions that go against the beliefs of his constituents, but we also need to remember one other important factor: He is still a Republican candidate for president.
McCain may want to move left, he may want to enact Kyoto and open the gates at Guantanamo and stop all political speech which doesn't end "I am John McCain and I approve this message", but he is still running on the Republican ticket, and he needs our votes.
As long as he thinks he can get votes from the conservatives in the party, he will moderate his natural left-leaning tendencies, and adopt a more conservative line. We have already seen this on immigration, where he has moved away from his earlier pro-amnesty position, and I predict many of his environmental positions will similarly moderate as the campaign progresses. I don't think he will ever embrace waterboarding, but he may stop pressing for granting so many rights to detainees in Guantanamo. In short, as long as he thinks the conservatives may be won over, he will continue to move to the right, especially as Obama has sewn up the left so well, leaving him little hope of winning by running to the left of the party.
But all of these opportunities to move him to the right are lost if conservatives promise to sit out the election. If we say we are not even open to voting for McCain there is no reason for him to move right. He may not have a lot of hope of pulling in left-leaning moderates, but if conservatives are completely out of the picture, running left is all that is left. So, by sitting it out, we not only lose any chance of moving him right, but we also push him a little to the left, making our choice even less appealing.
Of course some out there will respond by saying "Oh, he will parrot conservative positions during the election, but he won't deliver." To them I say that they need to remember this is his first term, and, as we live in the age of perpetual campaign, I just don't see him wooing conservatives before the election, winning with that support, and then abandoning them and risking his second term on the left lining up behind him. Yes, if it were his second term, he might be more tempted to move to the left, but during his first term, never. And, as far as his second term is concerned, we can cross that bridge when we get to it, but I somehow doubt, if he has done well enough to run for another term by sticking to conservative principles, he will be that tempted to revert to his old media-pleasing "maverick" persona.
I know it is not the most thrilling reason to vote, the hope that we can move a liberal Republican somewhat to the right, but as the alternative is to sit it out and watch Hillary or Obama run the nation into the ground for four years, I will take a slim hope over no hope at all.
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UPDATED 02/28/2008
It appears I am doing well as an amateur Cassandra. In his column today,
Robert Novak mentioned a conversation between McCain and Republican governors, which seems to agree with my prediction of McCain softening on environmental issues, as he tries to win over conservatives:
They made clear that energy was a major issue
and that they hoped McCain would be sensitive to energy producers. By
all accounts, the prospective presidential nominee was receptive.
Now, Novak is not always entirely reliable when breaking news from outside the beltway, but he is usually pretty trustworthy when reporting on DC insider horse trading, so I think that, only two days later, we have received confirmation of my prediction.
All of which convinces me that I was right, that keeping conservative votes in play, rather than promising absolutely to sit out the general election, will begin to move McCain right. Leading me to say, one final time, please, please, do not sit this one out. McCain is far from ideal, but there is still time to make him a much better president than either Obama or Hillary.