It is a cliched scene movies have repeated hundreds of time. A man, after a night of boozing, awakens groggy and slightly ill, only to realize he is not alone. With great hesitation, he slowly looks over his shoulder, afraid to see what lies beside him, what nightmare he brought home with him.

It may be a cliche, but I have a feeling it will accurately describe the reaction of many Democrats come the end of the primary season. Right now they are caught up in the euphoria of Obamania, but I have a feeling that, as soon as the primaries end and they roll over to see what they brought home, regret will set in.

I know that for many it is conventional wisdom that Obama will be a "strong competitor". Some have argued that he is certain to beat McCain, and have even produced polls to prove it. But before we dive into another "Dewey beats Truman" moment on the basis of February polls and a general euphoria among left-leaning Democrats, we should ask ourselves why Obama would be a strong competitor, what is his likely appeal to voters, and what, realistically, are his chances of winning.

As I have said before, Obama has managed to build up a strong base among left-leaning Demcorats on the basis of being a non-entity upon which they can project their hopes. In large part, this is fueled by their absolute loathing of the current administration. Just as bad situations can drive  people to seek any possible savior, I think the Democrats' almost pathological hatred of Bush and Cheney has left them open to embrace any slick salesman who seems to promise them a win. They see a young, charismatic man, and immediately seize him as their anointed savior, assuming that the rest of the nation will see what they do.

Unfortunately for them, the Democrats, and more specifically the Democrats caught up in the Obama movement,  do not represent a majority, or even a large enough minority to win the general election. So, instead of riding to a coronation based upon his cult-like worshipers, Obama will need to appeal to the center and even right wing voters if he wants to become president.

Appealing to the center will not be as easy for Obama as his primary run. The independents are, by and large, not as angry with Bush as the Democrats. They may be disappointed, but they are not so enraged that they are looking for a savior. Without anti-Bush anger as a catalyst, I don't think Obama will be able to infuse the middle of the road voters with his Obamania. Without the option of winning votes by being everything to everybody, Obama will need to actually sell himself, taking stands on issues and convincing the voters.

And that is where Obama is likely to falter. As I also said, a big part of his ability to create such a fanatical following was his ability to say nothing, allowing his followers to see in him whatever they wanted. If the general election forces him to take a stand, not only will his far left politics alienate much of the independent vote, but just by virtue of taking a stand he risks alienating some of those who are now his most ardent followers. Once they are confronted with a flesh and blood politician, who takes stands and sometimes does not agree with them, the love affair will end, the Obama bliss will fade, and they will be left with nothing but a young, eloquent, but extremely left-wing candidate. In short, they will realize they are stuck with a slightly better looking, slightly more eloquent John Edwards.

Of course this goes against the recent polls, but the polls are far too early to mean anything. Obama is still romancing his party, he has not yet had to take a stand, so his numbers run high. Once he faces political reality, once he is forced to stop campaigning without taking a position, I think those numbers will change quickly. There just seems no way he can maintain the fanatical devotion of his current base while also offering positions that will win over the middle. One or the other, or perhaps both, will have to be sacrificed, and, without both groups, I just see no way Obama can win.

Then again, perhaps Obama will surprise me. Perhaps he can remain a mirror to his loyal followers while winning over independents, or maybe the left won't abandon him after he takes a stand that will appeal to centrists, but I doubt it. No matter what has become conventional wisdom, I just don't see Obama making a strong showing in November.

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NOTE: For more thoughts along the same line, check out Best of the Web (third item from the top) and  Commentary. Both provide interesting alternate perspectives on Obama's general election campaign and the problems he is likely to encounter.