Posted by
Andrews on Tuesday, March 04, 2008 12:33:09 PM
Having just written about some of the
problems with Obama, I think it is time to explain why I am certain that McCain will win.
Yes, I know I am going way out on a limb. It is well known that pundits never call an election, as they will look like fools if the race goes against them, but I am not a pundit, and I feel no need to hedge my bets to preserve an image. If future events prove me wrong, then so be it. Things may change in the next few months, McCain may be found out to be the secret grandmaster of some evil cabal out to rule the earth, or G-d almighty could endorse Obama (though I somehow doubt it). But, as things stand at the moment, I feel quite confident saying McCain will win in November.
Here is my reasoning:
As I have said
here,
here, and
here, Obama's massive appeal depends on him taking either no stand, or every possible stand, so that his followers can project their own opinions upon him. That will not work with the independents. So, Obama will at last be forced to take a stand. Whether he takes a far left stand, to appeal to the bulk of his devout followers (and sacrifices many centrists) or moves to the center, it will not matter. Once he has taken a stand, he ceases to be that charismatic mirror, his followers fall out of love, and we are left with just another left-leaning candidate. His chances are slim once he has to appeal to anyone outside of the Democrat base.
Hillary has a little better chance. She may not be the master of triangulation that Bill was, but she has been setting herself up as a moderate hawk on the war on terror and has been showing a less far left face to the public. She has a real chance of pulling some of the center into her camp come the general election. On the other hand, if she defeats Obama she will face something Democrats have not experienced since 1968, a fractured Democrat party. The Democrats have always been great at closing party ranks after a primary, but I don't think they will this time if Obama loses. Robbed of their messianic figure, I doubt the Obamaniacs will go over to Hillary, it is far more likely they will sit this out. With only a portion of the Democrats, and some segment of the independents, I just don't see Hillary gathering the electors she needs. So, Hillary too has little hope of victory.
Of course, McCain has one big negative, the nascent Republican insurrection. Many conservatives have come out and sworn never to vote for McCain, which could help to offset the Democrat votes I predict Hillary will lose. Except for one thing. While Hillary cannot win back the Obama votes, I think McCain has a
real chance to win back some of those Republican votes. A strong move to the right will doubtless win over many of those now opposing him because of his liberal record, as would a good pick for vice president. Of course, some hard core voters will doubtless refuse to vote no matter what, but, unlike the huge number of Obamaniacs who would reject Hillary, I think the die hard McCain haters are loud, but small in number. Yes, there are Republicans who would never vote for him, but, compared to the Obamaniacs who would never vote for Hillary, they are a very small group.
All of which leads me to the conclusion that in 2009 we will see the inauguration of President McCain. Not something about which I am particularly thrilled, but it is better than the alternatives we have at the moment.
Then again, the future is unknowable. Something could arise between now and November that no one foresaw, so take my prediction with a huge grain of salt.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Off-Topic Note:
Earlier I complained about my browser's spell check software complaining about the very real word "indices" while accepting the fictional word "indexes" without complaint. Now it has done something even more peculiar, it missed a typo. In one of the sentences above I ended up writing "facer" and the browser spell check accepted it. I know it misses all the times I accidentally write "tot he" as "tot" and "he" are words, but "facer"? What on earth is a "facer" that my spell checker doesn't bat an electronic eye at such a word? I am beginning to lose all faith in automated spell-checking.