It is funny, but the Democrats, the "party of the people", of the little guy, of the average Joe, has managed to revive the smoke-filled backroom, the brokered convention, and the selection of nominees by the upper echelons of the party.

Thanks to a very close race, even with Hillary's wins yesterday, the numbers appear to promise no one a clear victory. Barring a concession, or dramatically (read "impossibly") large victories in the remaining primaries, the nomination will rest in the hands of the "superdelegates" (read "party elite"). So, the party of the people will be left with the nominee that the long-standing party insiders decide to support.

But I am sure more than one pundit will be hammering on that little irony, so let us move on to something more interesting. I am still trying to figure out which way the party insiders will decide to vote. In other words, I am still trying to decide who McCain will beat in November.

As I have said, I am certain McCain will win against either possible nominee, so my interest is pretty much academic at this point. I don't think either has a hope of winning the general election, barring some unexpected event, or some horrible skeleton in McCain's closet. And, while I can't rule out some unexpected event in the world changing the course of history, I can pretty much exclude any "October surprise" being sprung on McCain. After all, the fellow has served for over two decades, has run for president before, and has been despised by many conservatives and commentators since at least his championing of campaign finance reform, if not before. If there were any deep dark secrets in McCain's past, they would be out by now. There are plenty of people who would have loved to reveal anything negative about the man, making their continued silence pretty convincing proof that any scandals in McCain's past are either known (Keating Five) or are completely unimportant (the recent NYT hit-piece). All of which continues to convince me that a McCain presidency is pretty much a given.

So, though it doesn't matter much, who will McCain be defeating for the next few months?

One side of me wants to believe that Obama is a sure thing. The signs seem to be there. He still has the majority of committed delegates, he has had a few superdelegates defect to his side from the Hillary camp, and he has a good case that he is "the people's choice." As the superdelegates don't want to appear to be vetoing the voters, it would be easy for them to vote for Obama. In addition, there is all the media hype, and the Obamania, and the superdelegates are not immune. I am sure there are some superdelegates who are secretly writing school-girl crush letters to Obama in their spare time. Such enthusiasms have a way of spreading, but there is also the fact that many, seeing the support given by others, want to be on the winning side, and so jump on the bandwagon simply from fear of being left behind. So, Obamania may not only drive those who have fallen in love with Obama, but may also drag along those who feel a bit more lukewarm.

On the other hand, I am sure there are people in the party who are a bit frightened by Obamania. As I said yesterday, I see some signs that the more sober party members may be a bit worried. Due to all the adoration Obama has received, he may not have been properly vetted and may prove a weaker candidate than he appears. If I am thinking this, I am sure some politically savvy Democrats are as well. And, now that the race is tight once again, they may take that as a chance to switch to Hillary. After all, if the race is close, with momentum shifting to Hillary, they can risk voting against Obama in a bid to save the party from itself. Of course, as I said yesterday, such a move will likely fracture the party, but they may be willing to endure a short-term defection by the Obama loyalists in order to avoid nominating a very weak contender.

It is hard to decide which factor will prove stronger, the pressure to appear to be following the will of the voters or the impulse to save the party from an excessive enthusiasm. I suppose it all depends on two factors. If Hillary can continue to win primaries until the convention, and provided the media does not place too much pressure on the party to make superdelegates "follow the will of the people", I think it probable that the superdelegates may give a very weak win to Hillary. On the other hand, if Hillary stumbles, or the press dives in and starts opposing any superdelegate veto of the popular numbers, I doubt the superdelegates will be brave enough to stage a coup.

So, at this moment, it all depends on the press staying on the sidelines and on Hillary's ability to continue winning. As I have no way to know if either will continue, at this moment, I can't say what will happen at convention time.

Well, I will go out on a limb and predict that McCain will get the Republican nomination, Nader will lose the general election, and Ron Paul supporters will continue to annoy everyone for some time to come, but other than those daring predictions, I can offer no more guidance concerning the course the primaries will take.