Posted by
Andrews on Friday, March 07, 2008 2:25:25 PM
Well, in the past I said that Obama
would crash and burn as soon as the primaries ended, as he would have to move to the center for the independent vote and that would alienate his fanatical followers.
I later said that I think the Democrats are beginning to realize this and starting to move back toward
supporting Hillary (well, the upper echelons of the party, not the Obamaniacs). Now events have overtaken me and made my predictions seem more insightful than they should.
To be honest, I never thought the Rezko thing would get any traction in the media, so I thought Obama still had a chance at the independents if he worked at it. Of course it would cost him the Obamaniac vote and the election, but he could still get the center vote. Not any more. If the Rezko thing gets even a little coverage, the combination of "scandal" and "Chicago politician" is enough to scare off a lot of those independents.
Now, Obama did dodge the Farrakhan bullet rather skillfully*, so it is possible he can dodge the Rezko bullet too. Possible, but not likely. As the Clinton years showed us, financial scandals tend to stay in the news. Yes, Bill Clinton did manage to overcome some of the taint of Whitewater and the other scandals, but it left him dirty, and the public was convinced he was a crook. With Obama running as a fresh young face, promising "change" and "hope", the taint of a "politics as usual" financial scandal will probably be enough to scuttle his hopes of getting any independent votes.
All of which reinforces my earlier conviction, if Hillary can continue to win primaries, or at least win enough to keep the race close, the superdelegates may decide that dividing the party and losing the Obamaniac vote is better than putting up an unelectable candidate, and toss their support to Hillary.
Of course, I don't think Hillary is really any more electable than Obama, but to those superdelegates, stuck with only those two choices, she must still seem the lesser of two evils.
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* His association with other less reputable groups and individuals such as Billy Ayers, the New Black Panthers,
Jeremiah Wright , and others never really got traction in the media. Then again, as the Rezko story grows, maybe these will return to the spotlight.