Posted by
Andrews on Sunday, March 09, 2008 7:27:03 PM
I received a
comment recently from someone raising the points that Obama leads McCain in the polls and that Democrats outnumber Republicans, leading the poster to the conclusion that Obama will win. As the media sometimes says essentially the same thing, I will address this idea.
First, polls themselves can be misleading. Besides the Dewey-Truman fiasco always used when discounting polls, we also have Mondale beating Reagan in many polls prior to the 1984 election. Both of those show that polls may sometimes be incorrect even right on the eve of elections, much less 9 months out. So, our current polls should be taken with a grain of salt.
But even if we assume that the polls are correct, what do they tell us? Not much. McCain has largely been out of the news for some time, as he has had the nomination sewn up for some time. As he has been getting little coverage, he gets fewer votes. Any pollster can tell you, often poll numbers reflect media exposure more than actual support.
Obama's numbers are equally misleading. Obama has not truly faced a challenge or any real criticism of his policies. Even the supposed Clinton "attacks" have been pretty gentle compared to what he will have to face in the general election. Combine that with a media which has allowed him to get away with running a content-free campaign and the fact that he has taken no firm stands, and you can see that his current numbers are based on nothing but personal charisma. Once he is forced to take a stand, or once McCain begins to truly challenge him on his qualifications and positions, Obama's numbers will begin to change. He has yet to really campaign.
Finally, to address the supposed disparities between Republicans and Democrats. First, nationally the difference is not that great, but even if it were, this decision will not be made by popular vote. The Democrats are concentrated in a few heavily Democrat states. Yes, that means some electoral votes are a lock, but only those votes. By having states loaded with 80-90% Democrats (eg. Maryland), that "disparity" is largely neutralized.
Anyway, there are neither enough Democrats nor Republicans to ensure a win for either candidate. Whoever wins will win by appealing to the middle, and, as I have explained
here,
here,
here,
here, and
here, Obama will either be completely unable to carry the middle, or, at best, will manage to woo some of the middle at the expense of making many of his fanatical followers sit out the election. In either case, I just do not see the man building a coalition of far left democrats, young foolish idealists, and independents. Once his far left history comes out he will either have to disavow it, and thus lose his constituency, or embrace it and lose the middle.
McCain may have problems with the far right of his party as well, but he does have Republican support from the moderates, and may get the conservatives once an Obama presidency becomes a real possibility to those conservatives. Even if the far right sits it out, it is still less of a problem than Obama faces. Obama will eventually have to choose between 20-30% of the population who can accept his far left policies, or choose to chase after the centrists, at the cost of much of that 20 or 30% on the left. In short, McCain can appeal to the center without any costs, Obama cannot.
I know Obama's supporters will disagree. Right now nothing will convince them that they will ever stop loving Obama. But just like a teen's first crush, the Obama romance will not last forever. The supporters may not believe me now, but wait until August or September. Come back then and tell me how much you love him. If there is anyone posting love letters to Obama in September, then I can guarantee that the center has gone completely to McCain, as the only way Obama can keep the love-fest going is to ignore the moderates and the center, and continue to pander solely to his base. A sure recipe for disaster in November.
But Obama is a politician before all else, whatever he may claim, so I don't foresee a lot of ardent supporters left come November.