Posted by
Andrews on Wednesday, March 12, 2008 11:41:08 AM
I know I am a bit late writing about McCain's tendency to handle his likely rival with kid gloves, but there is a method to my madness. Of late, I have been writing about
Obama's Rezko scandal and his
weakness come the general election. In the
comments, my regular reader Nee brought up the obvious question "When has a scandal ever stuck to a Democrat?" In response I brought up the possibility of McCain using his media attention to keep the story in the headlines.
All of which brings us back to the question "Is McCain willing to fight hard enough to win?"
Now, I will be the first to say I think McCain made a mistake in criticizing someone for using Obama's middle name. If he had simply said nothing, let Obama's people whine about it and remained silent, I think he would have done better, as not only would that draw attention to Obama's muslim history but also would make Obama look silly and petty.
On the other hand, I don't think it was as bad as do some. Yes, McCain needs to be willing to atatck Obama, to fight as dirty and as violently as he can in order to win the election. Yes, the Democrats and Obama's people will fight dirty, even if they do it through proxies to keep Obama's hands clean. But I still do not see this as a huge mistake. It is still a long way from November. If McCain wants to earn some brownie points with the media by appearing as a nice guy and denouncing dirty politics, so be it. He doesn't have to start fighting for some time. Any attacks now will be forgotten by the election.
My only concern is whether it is an act or is part of McCain's character. As I see it, there are three possible explanations:
1. McCain really is too nice to win. Or at least too interested in staying in the good graces of the media. If he is unwilling to attack Obama in any way that will appear unkind to the media then we are in trouble. Obama still will have problems keeping his base while winning over the middle, so it is not a guaranteed McCain loss, but it definitely makes it less likely.
2. McCain is playing nice now, but only because it doesn't matter. He is either trying to appear nice to offset the compassion he will lose later when he truly attacks Obama, or maybe he is playing up to the media so they will be more willing to cover a Republican than they would be otherwise. In either case, McCain has a good chance of winning, provided he knows when to switch from being nice to attacking.
3. McCain is truly clever. He accepted an opening speaker he knew would attack Obama, and then denounced it. In that way he wins over the press, getting him less critical attention later on, yet his opener still got out the attack message. It is akin to
Obama's attacks by proxy on the
black superdelegates supporting Hillary, but even more clever, as McCain not only got a stealth attack in, but even got media sympathy for denouncing his own attack.
Only the first option bodes ill for the Republicans. But even if McCain is devoted to avoiding
"negative campaigning", Obama's situation still promises Obama a difficult race,
as I have explained before. And, even if Obama manages to overcome that, there is no guarantee that McCain will stay nice forever. If it becomes clear Obama is pulling ahead, I have a feeling that McCain, no matter how much he values the press' good graces, will not continue to fight clean when it might cost him the white house.
Of course, I could be wrong. A lot of people seem to see McCain's comments as portending a McCain loss. They may be right, but I just don't see it. It is too early, and the act was too unimportant for it to mean anything.
I suggest we wait and see what happens in June or July, as anything before the middle of the year is just too early to mean much come November.