I know I have been predicting that the superdelegates may surprise everyone by throwing in with Hillary rather than Obama, but it seems circumstances have overtaken my original prediction. Not that it is impossible my first prediction will prove true, it just seems much less likely.

A few weeks ago, when Hillary carried Texas and Ohio, and even before that, when the press started making its first tentative criticisms of Saint Obama, I began to predict that the power brokers of the Democrat Party were looking for an out, a way to off-load Obama and return support to Hillary, most likely as they began to realize Obama's messianic campaign would have no appeal outside of the liberal base, and because, combined with his ultra-liberal record, that cult-like fan base may actually turn off the center. So, seeing their opportunity for a win evaporating, I believe some in the party started looking for a justification to allow the superdelegates to decide the race in favor of Hillary Clinton.

At least they were until Geraldine Ferraro manage to destroy a second campaign.

Now, do not get me wrong, I think what Ferraro said was perfectly correct, at least as far as race is concerned. But she managed to take something that had not been an issue and turn it into an election-losing scandal.

Hillary had long managed to avoid any problems of race, even in the incredibly sensitive Democrat Party. Given the regularity with which the left finds "racism" as a motive for any action, it is amazing she could run against a popular black candidate for so long without being accused of racism, but she did. Even when Bill made a major gaffe in talking about South Carolina, she managed to smooth it over, being accused mainly of opportunism rather than racism. Hillary, proving a much better politician than I had believed, managed to even criticize Obama without being tagged with the dread scarlet R.

Then came campaign killer Geraldine. This time, not with tears, but with a few badly chosen words, and an ability to say the wrong thing at the wrong time.

When the story first broke, I did not immediately change my predictions, as there seemed no reason. First Hillary had proven quite slippery in terms of racism charges. Second, no matter what Ferraro said, it did not change the motives I think are driving the party elite to draw back from Obama. Third, it was still quite possible that the issue could fade from public consciousness quickly.

But, for a man who "never mentions race", Obama sure has a lot of supporters who mention nothing else, and they kept the story alive, leaving us with the sad spectacle of Hillary apologizing for the racism of not just Ferraro, but her husband as well. It definitely makes me think that the election has changed once more.

Not that the reasons the party may want to ditch Obama have changed, but they no longer have the cover they once did. Before the superdelegates could point to the swing in momentum and say Hillary was gaining support, people were having second thoughts about Obama, and throw their weight behind Clinton. They still could, but, given the current environment, they would risk the career-ending charge of racism, and that brand is not something a liberal Democrat would ever risk.

So, unless there is another drastic shift before the convention, I believe that it will be an Obama-McCain race*.

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* I included this last link, as, despite the changes in Hillary's fortunes, I still think the analysis I gave before is correct. Obama still has no hope of winning both the center and the left. His Obamaniacs will not stomach a swing right, and the center won't buy his messianic identity, so McCain has only to avoid making too many tremendous gaffes to waltz into the white house. (I am sure some Obama supporter will tell me I am wrong, and explain that everyone on earth will bow before Obama, but I just don't see it happening.)

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UPDATED 03/15/2008

It appears my prediction is coming true. The superdelegates are giving up on their pro-Hillary insurrection, as their cover evaporates. Then again, the Rev. Wright issue may give them the wedge they need to restore their doubts about Obama and allow them to shift back. It all depends on how the Wright story plays over the weekend and next week.

I will update my prediction as events change. For now, I think the pres may try to bury the Wright story, so it all depends on the alternative media. If the "5th estate" can keep the Wright story alive, Obama may see his superdelegates flee again. If not, then this story can always come back to kill Obama's hopes in the general election. In either case, Obama will definitely see some damage from his association with Wright, the only question is when it strikes.

ADDENDUM 03/15/2008

I was reading through other blogs and came across this one. The idea is similar to what I have been saying, though the author argues that Hillary may force the superdelegates into her corner, rather than postulating that the superdelegates may be defecting on their own as I have. It is another way of looking at things, and an interesting one, so I thought I should point it out.