Posted by
Andrews on Sunday, March 16, 2008 1:51:18 AM
Back around the Texas and Ohio's primaries,
I predicted the superdelgates were looking for an excuse to toss Obama overboard and nominate Hillary.
I argued that they were beginning to realize that Obama could not both appeal to the independents and keep his fanatical left-wing followers. Perhaps, at the time, they were also aware of the ticking Rev. Wright time bomb. Whatever the case, I was pretty sure back when I made the prediction that, should Hillary win the two big primaries, and continue winning enough primaries to give the superdelegates a plausible claim that the momentum had shifted to favor Hillary, they would toss their support behind her and give her the nomination. (Followed, of course, by a
McCain victory.)
Then came the Ferraro brouhaha, and Hillary's mea culpa to the press. As she had been marked with the scarlet R, I was pretty sure
she was done. The superdelegates no longer had plausible cover for a shift against the popular vote, and, no matter what momentum Hillary could muster, they were not about to throw their weight behind a declared racist against a black candidate with a majority of the popular vote. And so I ended up predicting an Obama nomination followed by a McCain victory.
Fortunately, I ended that new prediction by saying:
So, unless there is another drastic shift before the convention, I believe that it will be an Obama-McCain race*.
And that drastic shift seems to have happened.
Earlier I wrote about the whole Rev. Wright incident and said I would defer judgment until I saw what the talking heads said Sunday morning and how Obama responded. But I don't think I have to wait that long. A brief survey of the bloggers and other alternate media making up the fifth estate shows that they are not about to let the MSM spike this story. And, if I have noticed, I am sure the MSM has as well. Since they dread being scooped by "some amateur in his pajamas" I can pretty much guarantee they will be on this story for the foreseeable future.
It doesn't matter what the press says, how they handle the tale, or how Obama responds. Whether someone finds a tape of Obama listening to Rev. Wright giving an inflammatory speech or Obama gives the most eloquent defense ever, it makes no difference. As long as this story lasts long enough to create a tiny doubt in the public consciousness, the superdelegates have their cover once again. The fact that Obama has provided even more reason to worry about him in a general election just adds to the motivation to switch nominees. Just by having a new scandal involving him, Obama has erased the memory of the Ferraro event and given the superdelegates an opportunity to cast him aside.
However, as this event shows, nothing is certain until the convention. Hillary could once again manage to put her foot in her mouth, or one of her supporters could do it for her, and we could once again be back where we started. But barring any such incident, I am confident we will see a superdelegate insurrection come convention time.