Posted by
Andrews on Sunday, March 16, 2008 11:25:38 AM
I have been saying for some time that the superdelegates seem ready to jump ship from the Obama candidacy and throw in with Hillary, if only they have proper cover.
Initially this cover seemed to come with Texas and Ohio.
If Hillary continued to win primaries, especially if she ended up with a majority of the popular vote, if not the delegates, the superdelegates could claim the momentum was with her and the Democrat voters were having buyer's remorse over Obama.
Of course Ferraro seemed
to derail this, painting Hillary as a racist. But, now that the Rev. Wright scandal has arisen,
the superdelegates again have the option of throwing in with Hillary.
But will they?
I think it is likely. The Wright scandal has manged to taint Obama. Even if he manages to distance himself, it has raised doubts in some minds, and Obama's readiness to cast aside a friend of 20 years has started to destroy his image as being "different" from other politicians. As a large part of his appeal is this carefully crafted image of not being "just another politician" it is likely that continued coverage will not help his chances at a general election victory. Even if it does not destroy his base, it is certain that ties to Wright will not do much to draw in the independents.
And now the
Rezko matter is resurfacing. As I said before, if this story remains in the press, the combination of "Chicago politician" and "financial scandal" will not help his chances in the general election. So now that new stories are arising, showing even closer ties and more irregularities in his relationship with Rezko, Obama's chances are looking worse.
So, facing a nominee saddled with two major scandals, who was already unlikely to be able to win over the center, I think the superdelegates are ready to throw in with Hillary. At the moment all of her scandals are either in the past, or have been ignored as Obama has taken the lead, and, whatever her weaknesses in the general election, and there are many, she still has more possibility of winning that Obama does at this moment.
Again, any prediction can be proven wrong by changing circumstances, but, as long as thigns remain the same, I think the superdelegates will find reasons to vote for Hillary.