Posted by
Andrews on Sunday, March 23, 2008 6:46:57 PM
I think Obama's problems actually stem form his origins, not racially or geographically, but politically. Like many Democrats, he comes from a big city, and his political upbringing was in city politics, and, like many Democrats, he mistakes the situation in city politics for that in the nation as a whole. And it is costing him.
How so?
Well, if you live on the East Coast, or the Ohio Valley, especially in a big city, you tend to think blacks are more numerous than they are nationwide. The same applies to both blacks and hispanics for the West Coast, or for Jews in certain cities (eg. Baltimore, New York). This results in politicians who are very reluctant to alienate minority voters for fear of losing a significant number of votes. When these urban politicians move on to national politics, they often make missteps, as they still think minorities will make or break a race, when, in purely numeric terms, their influence is much less than city politicians imagine.
I think this may explain why Obama was not more vocal in dismissing Wright, instead providing excuses and cover for the reverend.
The problem for Obama is that the US is not Chicago. Black voters are nowhere near a majority, and their voter turnout is relatively low in most elections, farther reducing the importance of black votes nationally. He could have conceivably lost every black vote and won the election.
Instead, as his political upbringing taught him, he clung desperately to the black vote and lost a huge number of moderate white voters, and they are a significant block nationally. A more conciliatory speech, which did not try to blame white America for Wright's extremism, could have actually brought him more white votes, especially from left-leaning independents. Instead, he reverted to the left-liberal play book and blamed all of his woes on Amerikkka and racism, a step which almost inevitably pushed the independents into the other camp, as most white independents are open to racial healing, but are also tired of being told they are racists. As his speech amounted to nothing but a nicely worded accusation, I don't think it won him any converts.
By clinging to his urban political practices, imaging that minority block voting will decide the presidency the way it decides city or state office, Obama may have made the wrong choice and cost himself the election.*
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* I am assuming, of course, that Obama associated with Wright purely for political purposes. It is possible that Obama actually believes what Wright says, and that explains his tepid denunciation, but that is far more frightening.