Posted by
Andrews on Tuesday, March 25, 2008 12:07:01 PM
The superdelegate was a very bad idea, but one that was probably inevitable. Still, this concept is destined, in this election at least, to create problems with which the Democrats do not wish to deal.
The Democrats really did need the superdelegates. Their preference for proportional representation in primaries, rather than winner takes all, means that, unless one candidate is a clear front-runner, or all but one candidate concedes before the convention, there will be no clear winner. If there is a tight race between two candidates, or, worse, between three or more, the convention is destined to result in a brokered choice.1
As brokered conventions give the appearance of "smoky back room deals", the Democrats searched for an alternative, and came across the superdelegate. As most are elected representatives, it still gives the appearance of representing the will of the party, yet it prevents any brokered conventions, and it allows party insiders to have a greater say in the selection of a nominee in tight races.
But that last fact is precisely what makes the superdelegates so harmful for the Democrats.
In a tight race such as the current one, especially with people so invested in their candidate, no decision by the superdelegates will be universally accepted. With Obama and Clinton running so close, a superdelegate can vote either way. Obama still has more delegates, but it can be argued that momentum is moving toward Clinton, giving either vote a veneer of legitimacy.
However, just because it can be justified does not mean a vote will be accepted. Should the superdelegates make Clinton the nominee, doubtless many Obama supporters will feel their votes were ignored. Likewise, should Obama get the nomination, many others will feel the same. Either choice leaves a large block of voters feeling their votes were ignored.2
This might not matter in a different election, but this was supposed to be a cakewalk for the Democrats. Not only does Bush have incredibly low approval ratings3, but the McCain nomination alienated many conservative Republicans4 as well. The Democrats thought they had a sure thing.
Not now.
Whichever way the superdelegates go, there will be a significant block of Democrats who are likely to sit out the general election, or, even worse, cross over for McCain.5 As we are constantly reminded on the news, the nation is split pretty close to 50-50 between the parties, so losing even a small part of one's base is sure to be fatal for a candidate.
Unless one candidate concedes, or the gap between the two widens much more than seems likely, I doubt the Democrats will see victory in the general election.
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1. Obviously, ther Republicans could end up with the same problem. But the preference for winner takes all tends to establish an early front runner. As a result, most opponents tend to concede early, or else the voters decide to follow the trend and that front runner ends up winning the majority of the primaries. Not that this always produces an ideal result, but it does tend to make it clear who will be nominated long before the convention.
2. Add to this the fact that the party snubbed two entire states by ignoring their primaries. That will definitely not make those states kindly disposed toward the Democrat nominee. Though how much of an impact it makes remains to be seen.
3. Strangely, the low approval ratings for congress are never cited. Whenever elections are discussed, the only numbers mentioned are the president's. Then again, just because pundits ignore congress' lack of approval, it does not mean voters will. It is possible pundits have overestimated the Democrats' momentum by focusing solely on disapproval of the president.
4. Following the Rev. Wright scandal, I have heard fewer and fewer Republicans talking about refusing to vote. There are still some, but I think the anti-McCain mutiny is declining as the reality sinks in that we could end up with either a president Obama or a president Clinton.
5. McCain may actually be a boon for the Republicans, for the same reasons so many conservatives hate him. McCain is liberal enough that Democrats may cross over to vote for him if they feel the party is ignoring them. Even my ultra-liberal mother said that she would vote for McCain if Hillary were nominated.