Posted by
Andrews on Wednesday, March 26, 2008 4:13:00 PM
After my
back and
forth and
back again predictions about the elections, I am just throwing up my hands and saying "I have no idea who the Democrats are nominating." You have to think that John Edwards is kicking himself for conceding, as the other two have made such a shambles of their respective campaigns. Even Dennis Kucinich would have a better shot at the nomination than the two front runners.
As I said in my
last post on the subject, between Wright's racial rhetoric, along with Obama's ever shifting explanations, and the specters of Billy Ayers and Rezko lingering out on the horizon, it seemed Hillary Clinton had a real chance at staging a coup. If she won enough primaries, and Obama's problems stayed in the headlines, she had a shot at bringing over enough superdelegates to win the nomination.
But this primary seems to be dedicated to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
The moment Hillary saw her chance, she decided to go and ruin it by making up Barry Sadler quality stories about her commando raid on Sarajevo. And I could only shake my head and wonder why. Does she not realize that first lady is under 24 hour news camera coverage? Nothing she did passed unrecorded? Did she really think that no one would notice that she had just told a massive lie?
Of course, none of that removes the taint attaching itself to Obama's name. It just makes both candidates equally unappealing.
I almost feel sorry for the Democrats.
UPDATED 03/27/2008
A recent
Gallup poll supports my contention, one I have made several times, that no matter which nominee is selected, there will be a significant Democrat cross-over to vote for McCain:
A sizable proportion of Democrats would vote for John McCain next
November if he is matched against the candidate they do not support for
the Democratic nomination. This is particularly true for Hillary
Clinton supporters, more than a quarter of whom currently say they
would vote for McCain if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee.
This cannot be making the decision easier on the superdelegates.
Each candidate has a large number of supporters, so any defection could defeat a candidate even before the general election campaign starts.
UPDATED 03/27/2008
As I have often commented on the inaccuracy and unreliable nature of polls, some may wonder why I am placing such emphasis on this one. To explain, I will reproduce part of a comment I posted on this article:
... I have long said that polls are not very reliable, and that could be the case here as well. This is also way too far out from November to rely on this poll.
The only reason I mention it is that the answers show that at least some followers from each camp in the Democrat party are thinking about defection. The fact that it came up at all bodes ill for the Democrats.
So, it is not the poll results that matter so much as the fact that ardent Democrats are willing to defect if their candidate loses. That is significant.
I just want to make it clear, I am not reversing my position on polls. I do not think these numbers will be meaningful come November. This poll is only significant in that it shows there are already thoughts of defection.