Posted by
Andrews on Sunday, March 30, 2008 3:09:53 PM
One of the more frequent items appearing on the news of late is the call for Hillary Clinton to concede. On the face of it, this is a silly request, as Hillary has a strong block of delegates, and she seems to be set to make a strong showing in the remaining primaries. She may not be able to overcome Obama's lead, but there are still the superdelegates. It seems the wrong time for her to even consider conceding.
We also have Howard Dean, who is pressuring superdelegates to declare their candidate now, rather than waiting for the convention. This is also clearly designed to favor Obama, as it will be harder to back Clinton now rather than in a few months, after she has picked up a number of primary wins.
The question is, why is this pressure coming now?
Well, the reason the Obama camp would push it is obvious. Clinton appears to have quite a bit of momentum at the moment, and, despite her own problem with lying, Obama is caught up in a much bigger scandal. It is quite possible that Clinton could pick up quite a bit of support in the upcoming primaries and being to woo away superdelegates.
Of course, it is a foolish move for the Obama camp. Rather than appearing strong, it makes Obama look desperate, calling on a viable opponent to concede while he is caught up in a scandal. His supporters will doubtless argue with me, but it does not project the appearance of strength he had hoped.
But not all the support for a Clinton concession is quite so self-interested. Along with Dean, others are asking for a concession who have little interest in an Obama nomination.
I think these people are motivated by a problem I have been describing for some time. No matter which candidate wins the nomination, the Democrats are facing a mass of voter defections. Recent Gallup polls even support this theory. Partisans of both candidates have confirmed that they would cross over to the McCain camp should their choice lose the nomination.
So, it is likely this strategy is a recognition of that fact by the party. They are calling for a Hillary concession to keep her supporters from defecting after the convention.
Of course, one does wonder why they selected Clinton to resign rather than Obama. At the moment, Obama's scandal is bigger than Clinton's, and Hillary has shown herself more proficient at dodging bad news than Obama. Both are hard-left, but Hillary has more adroitly positioned herself to appeal to independents, especially as Obama has reverted to racial guilt in his speech about Reverend Wright. Yes, Hilary has many detractors, but, despite his claims of "uniting" Obama's record in the senate and in Illinois don't show him being anything other than a doctrinaire leftist.
It just does not seem that Obama brings anything to the table that Clinton does not.
As neither one has any better chance, and as both have equal chance to cause defections, I have to think there are two possible explanations. First, Obama's cult-like followers are so devoted that he Democrats think they will sit out the election, even if Obama concedes, so they have to hope for a Clinton concession. Second, that Howard Dean still dislikes the Clintons very, very much.
Right now, I think it may be a little of each.