I have written on this before, but I want to look again at the efforts to get Hillary out of the primaries.

The efforts seem to take two forms. First, we have explicit calls on Hillary to concede, either because she "can't win", or for "the good of the party". Second, we have Howard Dean's call on the superdelegates to declare themselves before all the primaries are finished. This second may not seem like a move to push out Hillary, but it is.

Let us examine those claims, and why Hillary will reject them.

The first claim, that Hillary "can't win" is technically true. She cannot get enough delegates to secure the nomination from the primaries alone. (It appears she will be about 300 delegates short if she wins every primary delegate, and if we ignore superdelegates.) But the same is true of Obama as well. Neither one is going to "win" on the strength of the primaries. The Demcorats set up this system to let the superdelegates decide tight races. So, saying Hillary won't win is just silly. No one is going to win, it will be decided by the superdelegates, and a strong showing in the next few primaries will certainly help Hillary's chances there.

The second part of that claim is that, whether or not Hillary can win, it would be good for the party if she conceded. This claim is partly true and partly false, but it also pretty self-serving when made by the Obama camp.

It is true that a concession would help the Democrats right now. The race is almost certainly going to be decided by the superdelegates, and whichever side loses will likely see a number of their supporters either sit out the election, or cross over to the McCain camp. (Maybe a few going to Nader, which is the same as sitting out the election.) So, were a candidate to concede it may avoid that ugly outcome. But only if the concession is voluntary. If the supporters think Hillary was forced from the race, the concession will be meaningless, and ti will be just as bad as if the superdelegates voted her out.

Which brings me to the false part. It is best for the Democrats if there is a voluntary concession on the part of someone. It is not clear that that someone is Hillary. Obama's campaign is faltering pretty badly right now and still has potential problems in Rezko and Ayers, and those are just the ones known to the general public. Given the kid glove treatment the press gave him until recently, it is quite possible other scandals are waiting as well. And, as the Wright affair shows, he is just not adept at handling scandal. He had three separate excuses, and the final one is only getting praise form those already supporting him, everyone else seems to see it for the evasion it is.

This is not to say that Hillary is likely any better a candidate than Obama. But it is clear that right now we can't know which is more likely to survive a general election. To demand that Hillary concede for the good of the party assumes that Obama is the obvious choice to run in the general election, and that is an unwarranted assumption right now. So, calling on Hillary to concede for the good of the party seems a bit self-serving coming from the Obama camp.

Nor is Dean's demand that the superdelegates commit themselves any more sensible. It is obviously a backdoor attempt at getting a Clinton concession, as at the moment Obama has a stronger lead than he likely will. If the delegates decide after all the primaries, it is likely they will be able to claim "momentum" on the part of the Clinton campaign and vote against Obama, should they wish. If they decide now theyw ill almost be forced to side with Obama.

Then again, forcing a superdelegate into deciding this far out from the convention seems a politically silly move. What if the candidate of choice concedes? What if he is caught with the oft-mentioned "live boy or dead girl"? (Or she is caught with the "dead boy or live girl"?) It seems if one is going to institute superdelegates, one would want them to have the flexibility to veto poor judgment on the part of the voters, as well as to adjust votes at the last minute to account for sudden changes in circumstance. To force them to commit this early is to lose half of that advantage.

But, in the end, none of this matters.

I just cannot see Hillary Clinton conceding. Oh, she will use the reasons I gave above, or others, to justify staying in the race, but I suspect her real reason is something else. I can't really offer any proof, so take this for what it is worth, but I just get the impression that Hillary Clinton is convinced she is destined to be president. From staying with Bill, to her ever-shifting position on the war, to her senseless lies, I just get the impression that everything she has done has been aimed at putting herself in the oval office.

I know I have argued against psychoanalyzing politicians and yet that is precisely what I am doing here, but I just have nothing else to offer. I do not put it up as proof, or anything more than my feelings on the matter. But I just cannot shake the impression that Hillary would do anything to win the presidency, and nothing anyone does or says will dissuade her.

Of course, in terms of the general election, Hillary's decision, and that of the superdelegates, will change nothing. Whether the Democrats force out Hillary, or the superdelegates decide it one way or the other, the Democrats face massive walk-outs and cross over voting, while McCain will benefit from fear of either a Clinton or Obama presidency, neutralizing much (but not all) of his own walk-out problem.  And, in the end, the Democrat "cake walk" predicted last year is going to turn out to be a Republican victory.*

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* Obviously, things could still change. If McCain is discovered to have his own crazy uncle, or Obama is discovered to have a crazy aunt as well, things could change greatly, but I just don't think that is about to happen. Obama was the only candidate the press treated so gently, the rest have had their skeletons pulled violently from the closets already, so if any scandal breaks, it is most likely another blow against Obama.