Posted by
Andrews on Wednesday, April 02, 2008 11:05:28 AM
Not only was this year supposed to be a cakewalk for the Democrats on the presidential level, but they were also supposed to pick up some congressional seats as well. Well, we know how they are doing in the
presidential race, but what about congress?
At first glance,.it may appear that the congressional races are not changed by all the problems in the presidential race, but that is only because the general elections have not yet started.
Think about it. The Democrats were mainly going to campaign on Bush hatred. In a few races they had specific issues, but, for the most part, they were predicting big wins because "people are tired of Republicans", which is pretty much shorthand for "we are running against Bush".
But, whether or Obama or Hillary gets the nomination, the Democrats have a Bush of their own. The Republican candidates can now tie their rivals to the presidential nominee, and make all of these scandals an issue in congressional, as well as presidential, elections*.
I am sure the Democrats are going to
dismiss this worry. They seem to think the fact that Obama is doing well in polls of Democrats proved he has overcome the scandal, but nothing could be farther from the truth. That Democrats were swayed to forgive a candidate they already liked is no surprise, but it also says nothing about the reaction of independents, who he will need to convince if he is going to win this election. And, by mistaking Democrats for the nation as a whole, the Obama camp is missing their opportunity to win back the independents.
Of course, as always, my predictions could be wrong. I suppose we will see in November.
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* Just to be clear, this may not help the Republicans in every race. There are certain races where local issues, or specific candidates, may make much more difference than any of these presidential scandals. My only thought is that, as Obama or Hillary will be running and Bush will not, the scandals involving the Democrat nominee will more than outweigh the residual Bush hatred in most races.