I just saw an article that declared Obama is forming "an ambitious plan to reshape the American electorate"¹, and it convinces me it is time for McCain to start picking out a dust ruffle for the Lincoln bedroom.

Why do I say that? Because if Obama really thinks he has hit on a unique winning strategy, he obvioulsy is every bit as inexperienced as his detractors say.

Obama's incredible new plan is to "get out the vote". Not only that, as if getting out the vote weren't innovative enough, he wants to attract young and black votes! What politician, especially a Democrat, has ever thought of so audacious and novel a plan!

I have earlier said Obama's failure to strongly denounce Wright may be due to the usual delusion of urban politicians, and this confirms it. Having learned his politics in an urban area where minority block voting is a huge factor, he is overestimating the influence of black votes. He is forgetting about all of those 3-elector and 4-elector states where black populations are negligible. He is also forgetting that black populations are still not a majority in any state (the District of Columbia is not a state), and are under 20% of the US population.

He is also forgetting a lesson Democrats have had to learn over and over, by pinning your hopes on appealing to minority voters, you end up marking yourself as beholden to that minority. As a result, voters from any other group are less inclined to vote for you, as they feel they will get short shrift. This may be even worse, as half-black Obama identifies himself as black, has been tied to a black separatist minister, and was endorsed² by Louis Farrakhan. Should he come out with a strongly pro-black platform, as he would have to do to get a significant black turn out, he runs the risk of alienating independents and white, blue-collar Democrats³.

But that is not the only lesson Obama apparently has failed to learn from other Democrat campaigns. Time and time again, the Democrats have pinned their hopes on getting out the youth vote. Why, the entire 26th Amendment was based on the premise that progressive politicians could "get out the youth vote". But it just doesn't work. People under 21 turn out in consistently low numbers no matter what the politicians try.  Various "hip" organizations continually try to get the youth vote fired up and voting for this or that progressive cause, but it never works. Just look at elections since the 26th Amendment was passed, Nixon was reelected, Carter was elected, two Reagan, one Bush, two Clinton, and two more Bush. In other words, since the "youth vote" has been a factor, presidential races have gone to Republicans two to one, not to mention that the "Contract with America" and the historic turn over of congress to the Republican after 40 years of Democrat rule happened while the "youth vote" was a factor.

The young just do not vote in significant numbers for them to be a force in presidential elections.

So, Obama's plan is this: He will follow losing Democrat strategies of the past by focusing on minorities and the youth vote, thereby securing votes he was already guaranteed anyway, all while alienating the independents and conservative Democrats he needed to win.

I don't see McCain losing sleep over the revelation of Obama's master plan.

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1. Best of the Web's coment on this is amusing enough that I have to reproduce it here:

Ho hum, he's preparing a general election strategy. But according to Politico, it's "an ambitious plan to reshape the American electorate"! Last month he gave a speech designed to control the political damage resulting from a dubious association. But as we noted, the Associated Press described this as single-handedly confronting the nation's racial divide head-on!

If he steps in a puddle, the headline will read "Obama Walks on Water."

Sorry for the long quote in a footnote, but since they did away with their archiving, I can't just provide a link to the site.

2. Normally, being endorsed by someone distasteful would not be a strong negative. You cannot control who endorses your campaign. But, as Obama has now been shown to associate himself with black separatists, the endorsement by Farrakhan begins to appear more meaningful. It leads voters to wonder if Farrakhan was simply endorsing the black candidate, or was endorsing a candidate who shares many of his beliefs.

3. I have written elsewhere that I think Obama may already have lost these groups. My point here is that if he has already lost 80% of independents, by running a race-based campaign, he will end up losing 95% or even 100% of them. He will be taking a bad situation and making it worse.

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ADDENDUM

I was asked by a reader if I had heard of the possibility of an Obama/Kerry ticket.

I had not heard about that, but I have read that Obama was talking about putting Gore in his cabinet, or at least employ him in some capacity.

I can only smile at the political tin ear this man has. He may be a good speaker, but he seems to have no idea about politics outside of Chicago. He already has the Democrats sewn up, no need to pander to them. And that is the only reason to woo Gore.

As far as independents are concerned, Gore and Kerry were tried and rejected. To add them to your ticket is to mark yourself yet another loser. The best thing you can do is stay far away from previous losers.