Posted by
Andrews on Saturday, April 12, 2008 1:03:45 PM
I mentioned this poll
earlier, but I now have
some specifics, and they bode ill for the Democrats.
It appears that not only has McCain closed with Obama, but the
earlier numbers about cross-over defections are being confirmed. It appears about one quarter to one third of each candidate's supporters have promised to cross over to McCain if their candidate loses the nomination.
It also appears the Obam's
"brilliant" plan to secure victory in the general election is failing, as McCain is gaining ground among voters under 35. This may be meaningful, or it may not, as that includes a relatively high participation segment (21-35) and a very low participation segment (under 21), so it depends on how the new supporters are distributed whether that matters or not. (Though polls usually ask if someone is a "likely voter", it really is meaningless. A lot of people "plan" to vote for a poll, but still manage to miss the actual election. So, even in polls of "likely voters" I tend to take that description with a grain of salt and rely on the historical behavior of various age groups. As this poll does not even bother to ask, and presents itself as a poll of "adults", these historical patterns are even more important.)
McCain is also making inroads in two groups I did not expect. He is gaining support among higher income voters and women, both groups I expected to be Obama bitter-enders.He is even gaining support in the northeast, the bluest of the blue regions. A month ago, or maybe two, I doubt anyone would have predicted McCain would have a chance in any northeastern state (except maybe New Hampshire), but now that he is gaining ground among northeasterners, women and high income voters, it is possible McCain may surprise everyone with a 1984-style sweep.
Not that I am predicting such a sweep yet. But given the trends, and with Obama and Hillary set to tear each other apart right up to the nomination, things are only going to get better for McCain. And remember, these polls were taken before Obama put his foot in his mouth yet again, so the numbers are probably even worse now. If Obama makes another serious mistake, or Hillary launches into a nother chapter of her Baron Munchausen-inspire biography, such a sweep will seem much less of fanciful prediction.
But we will have to wait and see. It is still a long way to November. McCain could always do something stupid, but I think he won't. He knows his opponents are destroying themselves, all he has to do is sit back and enjoy the show.
Correction: Originally, I had assumed this was a poll of "likely voters", as that has been standard practice for at least a decade. However, from the description in the article it appears it is simply a poll of "adults". I have corrected the text to address my mistaken earlier assumption.