Posted by
Andrews on Sunday, April 13, 2008 11:32:07 AM
Normally, I would say that any gaffe Obama committed this far out from the general election would have no impact on the outcome in November. And normally that would be true. Few people will remember any specific statement in February or March by November, too many other statements will come between the two and erase all memories. Just think of how hard it is to remember what the big issues of January were, after all the gaffes and scandals of February and March.
But any such assumption rests on one thing, that the candidate managed to handle the problem. Even if he only made a half-hearted attempt to respond, as long as it appeared Obama tried to deal with the scandal, it would fade away in memory.
What will kill a candidate, even as far out as March or April, is if the voters form an impression of him. Voters may not remember the scandals of March in November, but if they form an impression of him as scandal-ridden, or indifferent to voters, or simply incompetent, even in March, that impression will carry through to November, unless something happens to change it. And it is very hard to change voter impressions once they are formed.
For example, even before the primaries started, many voters saw Hillary Clinton as cold, manipulative and grasping, and that has translated into a segment of voters with a very strong negative impression of her that she has not been able to shake, no matter what she does. As I said, issues and statements may come and go, but voter impressions are the boon and bane of a politician's existence. A good impression can make a campaign unbeatable and a bad impression can make victory impossible.
And Obama seems intent on forming a bad impressions. First, in the Wright incident, he refused to give an accounting, he switched excuses, and then he finally gave a speech which really didn't answer accusations, and instead destroyed his "post-racial" image by falling back on tired racial recriminations. Worst of all, following that speech, he relied on polls of Democrats, showing they liked the speech, and he made no farther comments, allowing the independents and conservative Democrats to think that he just didn't care enough to fully answer their concerns.
As a follow up to his poor handling of the Wright matter, he made a very foolish statement about Pennsylvania voters, which gave ammunition to Clinton's already strong campaign there. Not only that, but a statement which made him appear elitist and rather contemptuous of blue collar voters, after he already alienated the blue collar Democrats with his handling of the Wright incident. And, to make matters even worse, once he realized the faux pas, he did not apologize, or try to explain it away, he stood behind his offensive remarks and only said that he regretted the way he worded them. This one response was perhaps the worst choice possible, even worse than saying nothing. Not only did it say that he is standing behind his offensive statement, but it actually manages to make him sound more elitist.
I am not sure if these two recent incidents, coupled with Obama's content free campaign, cult like following, and a few earlier incidents, have been enough to form a negative image of him in voters' minds yet, but he is very close. If he does not take some strong steps very quickly to win back voters outside of his cultish following, he will manage to paint himself as an elitist, race baiting far left Democrat, who is either unwilling or unable to respond to crisis. Such an image will serve only to drive away the independents and the moderate to conservative Democrats and create the right conditions for a McCain landslide.
It still remains to be seen, and, as always, the future is uncertain. But by his actions, Senator Obama is starting to make the future a whole lot less uncertain.