I was commenting on another blog, when it occurred to me that it would not take a lot for McCain to rack up an impressive electoral win. It is far from a certainty, as it is still a long time before we reach November, but the signs are there. In Obama's mishandling of crises, in the polls showing cross over voting by Hillary's supporters, in McCain's gains in groups traditionally voting Democrat, all of the signs are pointing toward a very strong showing for McCain.

Many will doubtless say that it is wishful thinking on my part and dismiss it. However, I remember that when I first started predicting Democrats would suffer an Obama hangover, many pointed to his enthusiastic following and rapidly rising numbers and saw only an inevitable victory. And when I said a McCain victory seemed inevitable, many,  seeing Bush's low numbers and the public's disappointment in the Republicans, doubted McCain had a chance. So, just because something seems unlikely to many, it does not mean it will not come to pass. Often the common belief of the moment is more informed by what happened in the recent past than what is happening now.

So, though at the moment it may seem unlikely, I think it would not take much for Obama to suffer a massive, Mondale sized defeat.

How do I come to this conclusion? Well, my reasons for predicting an Obama defeat have been well detailed elsewhere. If the Democrats are wedded to Obama as their candidate, I simply think that his appeal will be very small. Even among the Democratic faithful, I think his blatant elitism and recourse to racial grievance rhetoric has managed to alienate most of the blue collar vote, and even if he throws some bones to unions, I think McCain has enough centrist appeal to rob Obama of the union vote. Likewise, I think Obama's far left record may serve to alienate the Catholic vote. In fact, if recent polls are to be believed, McCain is gaining on Obama among the educated, the wealthy, women, and even in the Northeast, all core Democrat constituencies.

Which leaves us with an Obama candidacy relying on the black vote, a few extreme leftists and the "youth vote". As the young turn out in very small numbers in every election, and blacks do not form a majority anywhere but the district of Columbia, this leads me to imagine that Obama may see state after state go to McCain.

So, how do I come to the conclusion that Obama may be kept to the double digits in electoral votes? Well, let us look at the states and see which are likely to go for Obama, even after all his travails, and which have a chance of going for McCain if Obama is the nominee.

Obviously we have to give Obama the District of Columbia with its three electoral votes. No Republican has ever won there, and, to be honest, I think somewhere in Isaiah or Jeremiah there is a prediction that DC voting for a Republican heralds the end of the world. So, that gives us 3 for Obama.

Now, two states I think we can easily write off are Michigan and Florida. Michigan would seem hard going for Obaam even without the party controversy over the primaries. he would obviously have a good outcome with the black vote in Detroit, but I think the labor vote would go against him, maybe cross over, and leave it a very tight race. Add to that the snub fromt eh Democrats and I am calling Michigan for McCain. So that leaves Obama still at 3.

Events may prove me wrong, but I think Pennsylvania will go for McCain, and bring with it both New York and Maryland. The first two seem pretty good bets if Hillary's supporters go to McCain with an Obama nomination. Maryland is a bit more of a gamble, as the large black population makes it seem an Obama state, but I think McCain's growing influence with wealthier and female voters, as well as the labor vote which I think Obama is losing, make me call that for McCain as well. So, six of fifty one and Obama is still at 3.

Actually, I think having called New York, I should call all of New England. New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, I am calling all for McCain. None have been what anyone would call an Obama stronghold, and with McCain winning over the affluent and northeasterners in general, and my belief that labor will go for McCain rather than Obama, I think it is safe to call these for McCain as well. So, twelve of fifty one and still at 3 electoral votes for Obama.

As we are there, let us finish up the northeast and call Delaware and New Jersey for McCain as well. Delaware seems obvious as they have gone Democrat in recent years, but have still been rather conservative, making it an unlikely Obama state. And I think New Jersey will likely follow New York and Pennsylvania. So, fourteen states (if we call DC a state) and still 3 votes.

Let us turn to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, the area where I think Obama has his best chance. For the same reason I gave McCain Pennsylvania, I think he will take Ohio. Nor do I think it much of a stretch to give him Indiana and Kentucky. We already dealt with Michaigan, so we are left with Wisconsin and Illinois. As almost every candidate carries his home state, I figure Obama will get Illinois' 21 electors, though that isn't a lock, he could still manage to blow even that state. I also think, as it tends to the left, Wisconsin may go for Obama and bring him another 10 electors. So we have now covered nineteen states and Obama has risen to 34 electors.

Turning to the south, I think McCain will do exceptionally well. The south has been a good region for the Republicans in most presidential elections, even taking home states of Democrat candidates, and I don't think Obama's black support will make enough of a difference to change that trend. Having checked several other polling sites, I can see both the south and the midwest are pretty much a sea of red with a few undecided states, so I don't think it is a stretch to call Virginia, West Virginia, North and South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Texas for McCain. (We have already called Florida). So, after thirty states, Obama has 34 electors.

I think the midwest is a similar lock for McCain. Missouri and Minnesota are the only two about which I am not convinced, and given Obama's recent weak showings, I don't feel I am on shaky ground saying he will lose them. So we can hand McCain Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota. We might as well hand him the west at the same time. So we can add in North and South Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Arizona. So, that makes forty six states and only 34 electors for Obama.

We are left with the last five states, Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii and Alaska. I think it safe to say Hawaii may give its four electors to Obama as his other home state, and a Democrat leaning one at that. And I think it safe to call Alaska for McCain. So, after forty eight states Obama rises to 38 electors.

The last three are hard to call, as they are all three pretty evenly split between conservative and liberal regions. Even were Obama to get all three, it would not be enough to carry the election. But, somehow I just don't see him doing even that well. I think Oregon, without a strong minority vote, and with a relatively strong blue collar component to the Democrats there may follow Pennsylvania in going to McCain. Washington, on the other hand, always seemed bit more far-left, and so it the only remaining state I see going to Obama, raising his total to 49 electors. California is the hardest call, but I think Obama's appeal to black voters may actually work against him in the hispanic community. Combining that with the Hillary cross overs and the strong conservative presence in parts of the state, I think McCain may carry California as well.

So, at the end of the day, I can see a possible outcome where Obama ends up with just 49 electors to McCain's 489. It isn't quite a Mondale level defeat, but it definitely is not a great showing.

Of course, many will disagree, and even I can see that events could change and force me to draw different conclusions. But, right now, with Obama making such a poor showing, I think this lopsided outcome is a definite possibility. There is still a lot of time, and things are constantly changing, but were the election tomorrow, it is quite possible Obama could face a truly humiliating defeat.