Posted by
Andrews on Sunday, April 20, 2008 11:42:02 AM
Roger Simon just made an interesting assertion on one of the Sunday morning chatter shows. He argued that the Democrats' picture isn't as grim as it looks, as the Democrats will be fired up after the convention with the realization that they have just nominated the first black or first female candidate.
I beg to differ.
First, Simon is simply overlooking the animosity either nomination will generate. The polls support this, with their promise of large percentages either sitting out the election or crossing over. I doubt the feel good rhetoric of "the first black nominee" will win back any significant number of Clinton supporters, or "the first woman" will win back Obama supporters.
Second, if the Democrats do try to play up the first woman or first black angle, they run two serious risks. If the "first" nature is played up too strongly, it may give the impression that their candidate has no other qualifications. Worse still, it is quite likely, given their tone deafness regarding matters of sex and race, that the Democrats will drift into their usual grievance mongering, which will make their "historic first" more of a liability than a benefit.
Of course, it is possible that the Democrats will play it exactly right and overcome all the problems they are currently suffering. But, given the performance of their two nominees this far, I really doubt that will happen.