Posted by
Andrews on Tuesday, April 22, 2008 11:12:10 PM
I know it is "No News Tuesday" for another hour, but I can't resist reporting a bit on the Pennsylvania primaries. And, in reality, I am not breaking my "No News Tuesday" pledge, as there really is no news. But it is that very lack of news which is my subject.
Hillary won, but, at the moment, it looks like she only has a 10% lead on Obama. That is enough to keep her in the race, and maybe enough to claim momentum is on her side, but certainly not enough to allow the superdelegates to abandon Obama. In other words, the Democrats set themselves up to continue the slow bleed and rancorous debate.
Had Hillary received 20% or 25% of the vote over Obama, then the superdelegates could have jumped ship, thrown the election over to Hillary, and largely avoided the charges of acting against the voters. Oh, they would still have had to write off the Obama voters, but most of those would not cross over to McCain, they would just sit out the election. Perhaps some fraction of his supporters who strongly oppose Hillary would cross over, but I doubt the number would be significant.
On the other hand, had Obama won, I think more superdelegates would have declared for Obama, probably enough to give him the nomination. In that case, Hillary supporters, and those who strongly dislike Obama, would likely cross over to McCain, and probably in large enough numbers to make a difference.
But neither of those events came to pass, so the Democrats are left to tear into one another again.
It can't please many Democrats to have gone this long without a clear winner. The longer the race continues, the stronger the feelings on either side, making cross over voting more likely. It also leaves less and less time for the eventual victor to bring together the party. Combine that with the strong feelings engendered by the ongoing competition, and it seems likely the Demcorats will find their party quite badly fractured for some time after the convention.
But all that is in the future, and the future can change suddenly. So, for the moment, all I can say with certainty is that I am certain no one on the Democrat side is happy with tonight's outcome.