Posted by
Andrews on Wednesday, April 23, 2008 3:24:40 PM
I suppose my earlier optimism may have been a bit premature. Having read
Dick Morris', most recent column, it appears McCain is determined to be a one term president.
The column centered on McCain's "populist" rhetoric, blaming "greedy corporations" for the sub-prime lending "crisis", forgetting completely that lenders do not have an ability to force loans on anyone, that borrowers are every bit as much to blame as lenders. Worse still, McCain completely misses the role the federal government and state government splayed in this crisis. States, by "smart growth" and building caps continued to drive up property prices by preventing new building, and that constant escalation in property values led to unwise speculation in land, which inevitably would lead to borrowers defaulting. The Federal government by encouraging lending to high risk customers helped fuel this as well, not to mention the role of the Federal Reserve's constant low level inflation of the money supply, which kept interest rates artificially low.
And let us face facts, these companies hardly are making out because of the subprime collapse. Most are stuck with foreclosed houses not even valuable enough to cover the principal owed. Yes, they may still be rich because they have other assets, but banks do not get rich on foreclosures. (Nor do they twirl mustaches or tie damsels to train tracks.)
And let us not forget those borrowers who borrowed hundreds of thousand in equity against houses now worth only half that and then just walked away and let the loan go into foreclosure. They are not making out badly, yet they get sympathy from McCain and other "populists". The same with home "flippers" who saw huge returns for the past few years and are now finally suffering some normal losses and crying poor.
Yes, some people were harmed. So were many corporations. Taking sides is just idiotic. It is akin to seeing a gang shooting and blaming one gang or the other. If anything, everyone is to blame. The feds for encouraging bad lending practices and keeping interest rates low, the states for enacting laws that inflated housing prices, the borrowers for taking risky adjustable rate loans with too little down, and the lenders for making such risky loans.
But, McCain is apparently intent on reverting to his "maverick" persona. Perhaps he really believes it. Perhaps he thinks it will win over the independents. It doesn't matter.
In the past, I
predicted that he would inevitably move to the right, at least if he wanted a second term. Here I will make the opposite prediction. If he continues in this vein, he will win the general election (he would win it anyway, regardless of which way he goes), but he will risk being the first sitting president in a long time not to win his party's nomination to run for a second term.
Then again, it is a long way to November, and McCain is a skilled politician. If this populist rhetoric starts to erode his base, we may see him shift again. In fact, the very fact that Morris is supporting this move convinces me it is a bad idea, as Morris' predictions have been far from reliable of late. Once he sees the results of this populist trial balloon, we may see McCain moving back toward the right again.
Whatever happens, whether we are stuck with the "maverick" "populist" McCain, or a more right-center McCain, he is still preferable to whichever Democrat gets the nomination. The only difference will be whether McCain has a chance at getting my vote in the 2012 primaries or not. But somehow I think that may matter enough to him that he will reconsider this new strategy.