Posted by
Andrews on Thursday, April 24, 2008 12:05:53 PM
I have heard several people ask "Who are we to tell Iran they can't have a nuclear weapon?" A few ask the slightly different question "Well, Israel has a bomb, Pakistan does, why shouldn't Iran?" Or, even more modestly, "Why is it more dangerous for Iran to have a bomb than India or Pakistan?"
I think all of these miss two major points.
First, those who ask how we have "the right" to "deny" Iran the bomb are not looking at the question correctly. this is not about "being the world's policeman", or even doing the right thing. This is purely a pragmatic question of survival. We are not saying that Iran has no abstract right to have a nuclear weapon, we are arguing that allowing Iran to complete their nuclear weapons program would place the US at risk. It is not an argument about what would be right, but about simple survival.
Which brings me to the other point, the question of why we should worry about Iran having a bomb when we do not worry about other nations.
As an answer, let me go back in time to the doctrine of mutually assured destruction. We felt relatively secure in our belief that the Soviets would initiate a nuclear war as both sides had the capacity to destroy one another. Likewise, we are pretty confident that Pakistan will not initiate a nuclear war as the repercussions would be catastrophic for them. The same for most of the nuclear powers in the world today (excepting North Korea). There are a number of nuclear armed nations which would intervene should another nuclear power sue their weapons, so we feel confident that nuclear war will not occur.
But we can only be confident in that belief if we make two assumptions, that the actors do not want to die and that all actors behave in a more or less rational manner.
And that is the source of our worry about Iran. We do not worry so much that they will behave irrationally*, the Iranians have always acted in such a way that their actions are consistent with their stated goals. What is frightening is that the theological beliefs of the leadership may be such that death is not a deterrent. It is possible that some who wield authority may not be sufficiently reluctant to die for a revived doctrine of mutually assured destruction would work. Especially as their president has made statement concerning his desire to see the return of the Madhi, and done so in terms more apocalyptic then normal, such fears may not be unfounded.
Of course some will say those are simply rhetoric, or that the president is but one man. Let me answer in reverse order. First, the president is just one man, but, given the immense control wielded by the governing body of clerics, that he could make such statements and remain in office indicates that his apocalyptic statements are not just his, but shared by the various ayatollahs, and, by extension, by the government as a whole. Second, they are probably in part rhetorical, but they are also meaningful. We have not heard such talk of self-immolation before, so the change in tone is surely significant. Not only that, but their behavior in past wars, such as their use of human mine sweepers in various battles with Iraq, have indicated that Iran does not place much of a premium on the lives of citizens. So even if the upper echelons are not as ready to die as they say, they are perfectly willing to sacrifice their own people, and may view millions of deaths as acceptable losses. Even that sort of belief makes a nuclear standoff unworkable.
So, to answer all those questions, we are demanding Iran not pursue nuclear weapons out of a sense of self preservation. Iran, unlike all those other nations, has been too ready to sacrifice even its own citizens for us to feel comfortable should that nation obtain nuclear weapons.
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* In the case of North Korea, irrationality is more of a worry. It is clear that Kim Jong Il does not want to die, but there is ample reason to doubt his ability to behave rationally. So, though he may not want to die, he may still act in ways that will result in his death. That makes his regime every bit as frightening as the Iranians.