Posted by
Andrews on Monday, April 28, 2008 7:01:42 PM
I was thinking about McCain the other day, and considering his recent return to his left-leaning "maverick" persona, and I thought to myself "I would hate to be his VP."
Allow me to explain. Earlier this year there were a number of signs McCain was slowly shifting to the right, and that only made sense, as he would have to appeal to the conservative base not just for the general election, but if he hoped to win a nomination for a second term. Apparently the self-destruction of Obama has filled him with confidence, and forgetting that he wil need to be nominated if he wants a second term, he decided to move back to his old "maverick" position.
Which is why I would hate to be his Vice President. Since he can't win over conservatives while playing maverick, he will probably try to attach a conservative VP to himself. Unfortunately for the soul who accepts, after four years as McCain's VP, I doubt he will ever be able to win any conservative support again.
All of which led me to try to figure out who McCain will select as his VP. I have read a number of theories, mostly from beltway insiders, but they all seem to pick people the majority of Americans do not know, and also tend to favor moderates that they dub conservatives. If McCain truly wants conservative support, he will need not only someone known to the public, but someone who actually leans right.
So, who fits the bill?
The first choice I can name is out. JC Watts would be a great choice, a she is well known, conservative, a good campaigner, his nomination will not lose a congressional seat, but he is black. And that last one makes him an impossible choice. If Obama is the Demcorat nominee, nominating a black VP will be too easily painted as "tokenism", so nominating either black candidate, or someone too young, will be seen as more gestures than meaningful choices.
So, we need someone not only conservative and well known, but also neither too young nor black. And women are probably out as well, since that will be seen as an effort to win over disgruntled Hillary voters.
The best choices are unlikely to accept the position. Fred Thompson, Tom Tancredo or Duncan Hunter would make a great counterbalance to McCain and bring credibility on issues on which he is weak. Likewise Newt Gingrich would help his conservative credentials, but I just don't see Newt accepting the position, as he will know how much potential harm being too close to McCain could inflict.
Actually, I have trouble finding anyone who would happily accept being VP to McCain. I can think of a few who would probably benefit from the position, and a few who would definitely benefit McCain, but so long as he is playing maverick, I don't see a real conservative accepting the post.
But, hypothetically, let us assume McCain remembers that whole "second term" thing, recalls which party nominated him, and begins to drift back to the right, who would be a good choice?
I have one strange choice, but if you bear with me, you will see the sense of it.
Bobby Jindal.
Jindal is pro-life, he is fiscally conservative, he supports allowing exploratory drilling in the US, and he is generally the poster boy for conservative positions. This helps offset many of McCain's weaknesses and also offers the opportunity of brining back some conservatives.
Now there are also some negatives.
First, he is young, by presidential standards, and that will likely draw comparison to Obama. But that may be good, as Jindal actually has more experience than Obama, despite being just as young, so it does more to highlight Obama's inexperience than anything else.
Second, by nominating him the Republicans risk losing the governor's mansion in Louisiana. That is a big risk, and probably the most serious negative. But the advantages are great enough I think it is worth the loss.
Lastly, Jindal is not a traditionally "smart" nomination, as he does not bring a big state over to McCain. Then again, California is the only big state McCain probably won't carry, so I don't know how important this is. Don't believe me? Look at the biggest states. New York is Hillary country. If she is nominated, it will go to her, if not, it will go to McCain. Pennsylvania is exactly the same. Texas is a Republican state. And, thanks to the way the Democrats treated them, so is Florida. Unless he can get a Vice President from California or Ohio, I don't see the home state of a Vice President being a decisive issue. And, if we insist on the VP bringing some electoral votes with him, Jindal will likely bring Louisiana with him. As it is one of the few southern states that is not a Republican lock, that should count for something.
Of course, this all depends on McCain making a turn back to the right. If he continues with his recent "maverick" moves, I would not blame anyone for turning down a request to be his running mate. But if McCain returns to his party, moves back to the right, and gives some assurances he will remain there, I think Jindal would be a great choice if he wants to win over those conservatives he has so far managed to alienate.