Earlier, when McCain started slipping back into his "maverick" persona, I said that he would end up moving back to the right, and it appears I was correct. Quite some time ago, I argued that if McCain has any hope of a second term, he would need to appease the conservative base, and such considerations would end up driving him rightward. A Time article I saw today has convinced me McCain has realized this as well.

I will admit, some centerpieces of the McCain campaign have not filled me with confidence. He still appears to favor amnesty, and he has bought into the AGW boondoggle. On the other hand, he has in recent days been making much less noise about these and more about lower taxes and reduced regulation. Admittedly, what he says is not always the best way to judge a politician, but that he is moving his rhetoric to the right is a hopeful sign.

I will be the first to admit that I have no idea where McCain's true beliefs lie. His current belief in the free market and growing the economy to end poverty may be an act put on to solidify the conservative base and ensure a nomination for a second term. On the other hand, I have no reason to believe his "maverick" persona is any more authentic. As he gets such a favorable media reception when he plays against media expectations of Republicans, he may be adopting the "maverick" persona for ulterior motives as well.

Given that there is no way to know what McCain really believes, we have to content ourselves with assumptions about what he will do. And, in reality, that is more important anyway. I don't care what he believes, just what he does. If Hillary Clinton won the presidency and governed as the second coming of Ayn Rand, I would vote for her, despite her true beliefs. Actions are what matters, and beliefs matter only to the degree they influence actions. As McCain, like many politicians, seems perfectly willing to play whatever role is most beneficial, his real beliefs don't matter so much as what role he plans to adopt.

And, as his recent shift shows, McCain seems to be committing himself to the conservative role.

I know some will disagree and argue that he will play conservative and then rule form the center or left, but I don't think so.

First, this is not the first time he has embraced the conservative positions. He adopted more right leaning positions on the nevironment, energy, and the war right after securing the nomination. Admittedly, he immediately reverted to his old positions on the environment, and later moved left on the economy, but I think that makes his recent change all the more important. He tried reverting to a populist economic platform, and for whatever reason, has decided it won't work. Since he tried campaigning from the center-left and opted to abandon that course, I think it shows he has become convinced the ruling from the right is most beneficial to him. So it seems unlikely he will be moving back to the left any time soon.

And even if he wanted to move left, there are several impediments. Having campaigned on the right, a sudden shift to the elft will cause a lot of voter dissatisfaction, not just with him, but with the party. Obviously, this will only matter to him personally until he has secured the nomination for his second term, but it will also effect congressional elections after that. And if his actions might hurt congressional reelection chances, trust me the congress will pressure him to reconsider. And no president who hopes to get anything done can afford to ignore congressional pressure forever.

Now, none of this constitutes a guarantee, and it is rather sad that we have to resort to reading tea leaves to figure out what our candidate would do, but that is what we have this election, like it or not. Whether or not we like any of the candidates, one of them will end up being sworn in in January. So, we have to pick the best of the lot and run with him.

And, for reasons I explained over and over again, I still think McCain will be preferable to the other possibilities. Just on supreme court nominations, there is no comparison between McCain and Obama. And, truthg be told, those nominations will mean much more than a presidency will, and for much longer. Of course, a bad president can do a lot of damage, but a bad justice can do still more.

So, even should my predictions prove wrong, I think on justices alone, McCain would be the clear choice, but, because I think he will feel pressure to move right, I am actually feeling a bit more hopeful about the next four years. I doubt that I will agree with every presidential policy in the next administration, but I am no longer worry that I will agree with none of them.