Posted by
Andrews on Thursday, May 15, 2008 5:38:47 PM
I have read recently the question whether Bob Barr will be a "spoiler" for John McCain. The theory is that he may perform for McCain a role similar to Nader's relationship with Gore in the 2000 election, drawing off votes and creating a closer race.
I just don't see it in this particular race.
Barr is running on a Ron Paul variety libertarian platform, including his opposition to the conflict in Iraq. Given that, I doubt Barr will attract the conservatives who reluctantly support McCain solely on his pro-war stand. Likewise, those who supported Paul and would support Barr were unlikely to vote for McCain even were Barr not in the race. Most likely they would be sitting out the election.
Oddly enough, Barr may actually harm the Democrat nominee more than McCain. A number of truly upset conservatives were threatening to vote Democrat to show their displeasure with the two choices given them. Now that Barr provides an option some may consider palatable, he may actually siphon a handful of protest votes away from the Democrat.
But that is likely only a handful of votes. Viewed realistically, Barr will probably get some small percentage of voters who would sit out the election otherwise, a tiny number of people who would have otherwise voted McCain, and a slightly larger, but still tiny, number of conservatives who would otherwise have filed a protest vote for the Democrat. None of those numbers are really large enough to matter, meaning, overall, Barr will have little impact. Certainly not the "killer" role that the Democrats ascribe to Nader's 2000 run.