Posted by
Andrews on Tuesday, May 20, 2008 12:37:36 PM
I continue to see predictions that the Republicans are facing loss not just in the congressional elections, but int he presidential election as well. And not just
from the MSM, but from
conservative commentators as well. Now, I will not comment on congressional elections, but are these people seeing the same race I am? I just don't see the signs they do.
Now, let us start with the obvious, no one has really torn into Obama yet. McCain is starting to, but so far he has held back. Still, the fact is that Reverend Wright has disappeared from our radar and Obama is starting to recover from that gaffe. But what happens when the RNC puts "G-d D*mn America" on television screens twenty four hours a day? Or when Americans are reminded that they turn to G-d out of bitterness? Or when they are reminded of how troubled Obama is by the high price of arugula? Or when they are told about his plan to invade Pakistan? Or negotiate with Iran?
The fact is that the polls favor Obama because the press favors Obama. Not to mention that the Republican primaries are over, meaning the Democrats almost monopolize the news cycle. As soon as the Republicans start buying air time, and using the news coverage of the race to get out their message, America will be reminded again and again of the Obama that even Democrats started to flee.
Yes, Obama has die hard fans, and yes there are Republicans who will never vote for McCain. But notice that no matter how hard they try, the media has had little luck in creating even a small scandal around McCain, while despite their best efforts, even Democrats were shocked by some of Obama's statements and behaviors.
This race will be decided by the independents, and, to a smaller degree, the cross over Democrats upset at the outcome of the nomination. This has led me to predict a
McCain victory,
over and
over again. And I still see no sign that has changed my mind. When independents and blue collar Democrats are confronted with Wright and Ayers and "bitterness" and negotiations with Iran, and confronted so regularly they cannot forget, they will turn from Obama as quickly as they did when these stories first broke.
It is a bit uncomfortable standing in opposition to so many professional pundits, but I just cannot understand their thoughts on this one*. Obama's current numbers are a media artifact. Once the public is reminded of the real Obama his paper lead will evaporate. McCain may not have much hope of winning on his merits, but he cannot help but win on Obama's weaknesses.
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* Then again polls showed Mondale far ahead of Reagan right up to the election, and we know how that turned out. And who can forget the "Dewey Wins" headline? So perhaps standing against the pundits on this one isn't quite as uncomfortable as I first thought.