As I was writing my last post, I realized why conspiracy theories are so appealing to so many.

I had always assumed that conspiracy theories were adopted because they are so comforting. The reality of history is that many things happen for reasons we do not fully know, and may never fully know. A lot of history is simply the outcome of a number of unrelated events.

World War I, for instance, was the outcome of a combination of a set of treaties, combined with an assassination plot by a handful of Serbian nationalists. Historians like to speak as if the treaty system would have inevitably resulted in war, but in reality, but for the unpredictable assassination of the Archduke, none of it would have necessarily come to pass. The Warsaw Pact and NATO were pretty much late 20th century reincarnations of the treaty system preceding the war, yet never resulted in a widespread conflict.

Or look at the Great Depression. While economists can easily explain how the use of the dollar or pound (depending on the nation) to replace gold and silver reserves, combined with escalating inflation by any number of nations resulted in conditions which made the depression possible, but it was still a series of discreet, nearly unpredictable events which caused the collapse. Without any of these, the disaster might have been postponed. (I doubt given the circumstances the depression could have been avoided indefinitely. It could at best have been made less severe by a gradual deflation, and even that would have risked bank runs, stock market crashes, and a sudden  economic collapse.)

The conspiracy theory gets rid of all this uncertainty. It makes of every event a manifestation of some underlying plot. The world is no longer driven by events which cannot be foreseen, it is no longer subject to events driven by unpredictable causes. Now it is all explained by the conspiracies which drive every event.

For a long time, I thought that was enough of an explanation. But, now I realize there is another reason so many believe in conspiracy theories, ancient astronauts, Jesus' bloodline and other such beliefs.

Everyone wants to be an expert. Or almost everyone. People do not like to think of themselves as mundane.And in the past, it was relatively easy. When one's circle of friends was limited to a few dozen, he could memorize baseball statistics or learn all the lyrics to every song by Wham and become a local expert. He could find some trivial area and feel he was the best at something. But now, with the internet, he finds himself competing with hundreds or thousands who have taken a similar route to fame. Where previously geography and lack of interest insulated him from competition, now he finds himself challenged constantly.

And that is where the conspiracy theory comes in. It allows every aspiring expert an endless means of achieving distinction. With lax standards of proof, it  allows even those with limited knowledge to put on a veneer of authority, and every new theory is eagerly absorbed by a legion of other theorists. Where before there was an objective measure of one's success, in the realm of conspiracy theories, there is no standard of proof, every theory is accepted, and the only measure of success is the popularity of a theory. And even if one should prove unpopular, he can gain some measure of comfort from believing that he is rejected precisely because he got "too close".

In short, conspiracy theories are the manifestation of Andy Warhol's fifteen minutes. While many do still turn to them to find a comforting explanation for everything that happens, many others turn tot hem to find validation. To find approval from others by turning out the most outlandish explanations possible. And since the internet makes entry costs almost zero, a field previously limited to a few lunatics with mimeograph machines has now opened up to the public at large. And with the explosion of theorists, so too has the audience expanded. So where one could reach an audience of dozens, the new conspiracy theorist can now reach thousands, and so the appeal is greater than before.

POSTSCRIPT

I do have to say that in some ways the internet makes conspiracy theories seem more popular than they truly are. Those who use the internet regularly may be more open to conspiracy theories than others.

Then again, Townhall is a relatively mainstream conservative site, yet we have more than our fair share of those who find conspiracies everywhere, from the CFR to the USS Liberty, I have heard quite a few conspiracy theories espoused here. So I don't think I am wrong in assuming that paranoia is increasing as a political philosophy.

ADDENDUM

I will admit that many blog for precisely the same reason,. the chance to appear an expert. And in some ways this is just as standard free as the conspiracy world. Provided you find a venue which appreciates your ideology you can get away with murder.

So, I am not criticizing those who set out to find fame from their writing, I just criticize their choice of subjects.