Posted by
Andrews on Thursday, June 19, 2008 2:49:15 AM
I have been reading a lot of conservative sites predicting not only an Obama sweep, but a Democrat super majority able to override filibusters in the senate as well. In fact, that appears to be the majority belief. However, I am here to tell the right that they are just wrong on this one, and I will explain why.
First, you are listening to the Democrats and
the media (as much as those two can be distinguished). The Democrats
are enamored of Obama and
imagine everyone else will be too. They have bought into the hype of the Obamania they see in their party, and think the independents and swing Republicans will just fall in love with the guy too. But I think that
is incredibly optimistic, to the point of absurdity. Obama can't even win over all the Democrats. Blue collar Democrats, former Hillary supporters, feminists and others are not backing him. If he can't win the left, how will he win the independents? Not to mention that reviving the Wright scandal, replaying his statements on Iran, Iraq, and negotiating with terrorists, his many stands on Israel and his Rezko and Ayers scandals which have yet to break will do a lot to sink him with the center. I
just don't see him sweeping up the center and left. And I have said so
for a long time now.
Second, you are believing Republican hype, and from the outer fringe. I know a lot of Republicans said they would "never" vote for McCain and would rather see a Democrat win and
get blamed for all the bad things that happen, but a lot have listened to
arguments such as those I made, and
realized that the harm is too great, that our nation
needs a real president at this moment. Most are now saying "I don't like McCain but...". However, there are still a few vocal
"principled" opponents, who continue to say they would vote Obama before McCain, and their voices are convincing Republicans that there is still a massive opposition, when there isn't. (I would note that many who take this position are disgruntled Ron Paul supporters, the more extreme Huckabee supporters and others who were unlikely to vote the party line unless their specific candidate won, meaning the loss of their support is meaningless, as we never had it in the first place.)
Third, the numbers just aren't there. Even before he was handed the primary,
Obama was losing to McCain among key Democrat constituencies, the rich, the Northeast, women, college educated, and so on. Admittedly, polls fluctuate, and it is still very early to rely on polls, but Obama's numbers are definitely not what one would expect from a sure thing. Still, reliable or not, even this far out of the election, the poll numbers do reveal one startling fact, that Obama is still so little ahead of McCain.
Why does that matter?
Because Obama is facing the ideal environment. Bush has extremely low approval ratings. That should favor Obama. The government has been completely Republican for six of the last eight years, and the White House Republican for all eight. That should favor the Democrats. Congress also has low ratings, and McCain is a long time senator, which should favor newcomer Obama. And the Democrats have momentum, having taken seats in the last election, which should also favor the Democrats. The Republican race ended early, meaning only the Democrat primary got substantial coverage, which should favor the Democrats as well, at least for the moment. And finally, the press loves Obama, even covers up his mistakes, which should work in his favor as well.
But, even with all that in his favor, Obama can't get more than a few points ahead of McCain, and he rarely holds on to that lead. It does not bode well for the man that even before he has faced real questioning, he still can't take that giant advantage and turn it into something as modest as a five point lead with consistency. He should be fifteen points ahead, instead he has trouble keeping three ahead of McCain.
Now, it is not all rosy. While I think McCain will surprise people, I do think the congress will be a grim picture for two more years. On the other hand, that too works in our favor, as the public dislikes handing both congress and the white house to the same party. They will do it, but only when a party has truly lost public confidence, and things just aren't that bad right now.
So, cheer up. All is not lost. I know the conventional wisdom is that the Democrats will sweep everything, but so what? Conventional wisdom is that Bush lied, there were no WMDs and Gore won Florida, so the conventional wisdom can be quite wrong.