Posted by
Andrews on Tuesday, June 24, 2008 4:06:18 PM
It appears that
Obama's own numbers show he is losing about 15% of Democrats to McCain and running neck and neck among the independents. This confirms what
I have been saying for some time,
over and
over again. Even before the real fight starts, Obama's supposed massive lead is evaporating. He appeals to a very specific, small segment of the Democrats, and that's it. He can't reach out, even to the whole of his party. (However, because the segment to which he appeals includes the media, we get to hear constantly that he is certain to win.)
Once the McCain campaign starts to pound on Obama's many scandals, policy weaknesses, and inexperience, I expect that even his half of the independents will begin to defect to McCain. Unless there is an impossibly large defection of Republicans to
Bob Barr, I just don't see any way McCain can lose this election.*
I still wish we had a better candidate representing the conservatives, but that cannot be helped now. And,
as I argued before, I think McCain's victory, in the long run, will be more beneficial than most conservatives believe.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
* Due to his stand on defense, I don't see Barr stealing a significant percentage of Republicans. I expect not even all of the Ron Paul voters will go over to him. And,
as I wrote elsewhere, some of the Paul voters may actually be Obama votes, were it not for Barr. If they were more anti-war than libertarian, they probably would go to Obama without Barr in the race, but now Barr is stealing them back. So, Barr may be more of a spoiler for Obama than McCain.