Posted by
Andrews on Wednesday, June 25, 2008 4:56:25 PM
As I reported earlier, Obama's own numbers say he is losing up to 15% of the Democrat vote, and is running neck and neck with McCain among independents. Yet I see both the press and liberals (As much as those can be distinguished) saying Obama is leading in polls by as much as 15%.
Assuming Democrats and Republicans are mostly equal in numbers at about 40% of the population each, and as we can disregard independents, where the two are tied, with the 15% of Democrats crossing over to McCain (about 6% of the voters), does that mean that 52.5% of the Republican party is crossing over to vote for Obama?
That is the only way to make both Obama's and the press numbers work out.
ADDENDUM
Then again, every time I see the line about Obama leading by 15%,
I never see a specific poll cited. And the more responsible MSM reports seem to admit that Obama does not have anything approaching a consistent lead over McCain. So I think that 15% may be disinformation from the overconfident left. If someone can give me a citation to the poll supporting this, I will have to think otherwise, but right now either I think it is fabricated or else relies on a single aberrant poll. (One even Obama's campaign does not believe, judging by their own presentation.)