Posted by
Andrews on Tuesday, July 15, 2008 3:12:14 PM
I wrote about this before, but I want to correct one misapprehension, the idea that we
KNOW how much oil there is in the earth. Any number you see is an extrapolation from "known reserves". Known reserves, almost without fail, tend to be about 20 to 30 years of oil at current consumption. Why? Because oil companies have no interest in prospecting once they have that much in reserve. It is costly to prospect, and if you have oil to run for 20 or 30 years, why look for more. Well, as oil is drilled, they will continue to prospect for replacement reserves, but that would still need to keep known reserves at somewhere between 20 and 30 years.
That is why since the1960's we keep hearing "Oil will run out in 30 years!" Because scientifically illiterate journalists confuse known reserves with total reserves.
Scientists do produce more accurate numbers, based upon extrapolations from known reserves, but even there it is still partly guesswork, and is still hamstrung by the fact that once we reach a certain reserve threshold we stop looking. And before you put too much faith in scientists, the best science of the day once said there was not likely to be oil in Texas, and the US Geological Survey has repeatedly missed predictions of both total oil reserves int he US and the point when "peak oil" will be reached.
Finally, any prediction is based either on current technology or anticipated technology. As no one can predict the future that well, they often err on the conservative side. Before you say we have reached "peak oil" or will soon, recall that we are currently producing oil form wells once "scientifically" declared "played out".
In short, until we survey every inch of the earth's surface, and without an absolute knowledge of all future technology, any prediction that oil will "run out" on such a date is just a guess, and should be treated as being as valid as any other guess.
POSTSCRIPT
I may overstate the case against scientific estimates, as some are based on relatively sound science, but they still have serious limits. We have not done comprehensive exploration for oil over the entire surface of the globe, and, if we were able to predict oil deposits as well as some think, then there would be no trouble finding new reserves. The fact that we still need to prospect for oil shows we do not possess perfect knowledge, which also means that predicting absolute total reserves is a fool's game.
ADDENDUM
By the way, I know at least one of my readers is involved in the oil industry. And I admit that a lot of what I write is based either on personal research or simple common sense, not on industry knowledge. So if I am in error, please let me know. I think what I have written is correct, but I always welcome professional input.