I have written many times on why Obama will lose the election, but I never went into detail, so let me add just a bit of explanation. I will not bother explaining why Obama will lose the center, as that should be obvious. He is by nature too far left for most independents, and his efforts to win them over are usually pretty unsuccessful. Even when he does persuade some in the center, he then has to veer left again to secure his base, losing any gains he made and giving the impression that he is a liar. On top of that, thanks to his reputation as a maverick, McCain already has a pretty strong appeal to moderates.

Instead, let's look at how Obama will lose the Democrats.

First, there are those who really supported Hillary Clinton. In a normal election, there would be some making of amends and they would be brought back into the fold. But thanks to the exceptionally rancorous campaign, the exclusion of Florida and Michigan from the primaries, and the impression that the superdelegates cut off competition early, there has been little fence mending. Which means that Hillary supporters are mostly crossing over and voting for McCain. And not just Hillary supporters, but also a few undecided voters who were upset by the high-handed way in which the superdelegates ended the primaries.

Second we have the union Democrats. This is traditionally the conservative edge of the Democrat party. Many were already in the Hillary camp and are responding as the other Hillary voters are. Some were not in Hillary's corner, but are still abandoning Obama. Why? Because of two factors. First, Obama is just too far left for many union voters. Second, Obama really has no feel for union issues, his focus being primarily on the far left fringe of the party, which has made it difficult for him to find issues which he can use to appeal to union voters. He just doesn't know what he needs to say to win them over, and it shows.

Third, we have the traditional civil rights establishment. They would seem to be a natural base for Obama, and for a time they were, but more and more they are abandoning him. Partly it is from self-interest, as a black president would make it very hard to press claims based on racism, but partly it is also based on Obama's actions. In the aftermath of the Wright scandal, and as he tries to win the center, he has tried to distance himself from race issues, making him less and less appealing to those whose political clout is based almost entirely on their skin color.

Fourth, the Hispanic vote. While Obama may be distancing himself from the black civil rights establishment, it is coming too late to win back Hispanics. His early association with Wright, Pfleger and others told Hispanic voters that he would not have much interest in issues about which they care. At the same time, McCain, like most Republicans, has been catering to Hispanic groups trying to win votes (so much so that it is hurting his support within his own party). That does not bode well for Obama.

Fifth, the peace activists. These people are still in the Obama camp, but won't be for long. Obama has been playing fast and loose with his promise to leave Iraq. He has recently returned to his original position that he will definitely leave Iraq, but has tried to throw a bone to the center by promising to increase troops in Afghanistan. As his anti-war supporters aren't just opposed to Iraq, but to all military action, this promise is sure to alienate them swiftly.

Sixth, we have the rest of the Obamaniacs. This is the hard-core of Obama support, the left wing fringe of the party. And, just as his flip flops on defense are going to lose Obama the anti-war left, his continuing reinvention of himself is going to lose him the rest of the Obamaniacs. They are not just supporters, but have bought into Obama as a cause, and sooner or later the constant changes in their messiah will cause them to lose faith.

All of which brings me to the conclusion that there is hardly a segment of the Democrat party where Obama can count on support. He may not lose all the members of each group, but he certainly is going to lose quite a few. Not all will cross over to McCain, those on the left may go to McKinney or Nader, and some may just drop out and not vote, but it hardly matters. With the little support on which Obama can count, McCain doesn't need every Democrat to cross over. Republican votes alone could easily defeat the few votes Obama will eventually get.