Posted by
Andrews on Wednesday, July 23, 2008 10:54:32 AM
I have been reading comments on various newspaper sites, especially those concerning the
likely photoshopped Iranian missile launch, and it appears the elft has settle don a party line about Iran. It is a line that has been around for some time, but it appears this single line has become the official party line.
The story is this: Iran is a weak and primitive and lacks the military technology to threaten anyone. They are simply engaging in "saber rattling" to be "taken seriously". They know they will lose in a war against the US or Israel, so they are not seriously provoking one. It is the mirror image of the story that Saddam didn't have WMDs but only said he did to save face. (Ignoring the fact that
HE DID HAVE WMDs!)
It is the perfect story for the OBama wing of the party, as it justifies talking to Iran and allows them to paint Bush as a war monger at the same time. If Iran is just behaving like a child, acting up to make the other nations take them seriously, then soothing hand holding from Obama is all it will take to get them to give up their nuclear program (
which doesn't exist according to the left) and stop making all their (non-serious) threats against Israel and the US.
What this ignores is that Iran is giving every sign that they are not just "saber rattling". Iran has been supporting Hezbollah for years in Lebanon and elsewhere, they have been sending not just "insurgents" but actual combat troops into Iraq. This is not the action of a "saber rattler" trying to appear tough, it is what a nation would do were they trying to quietly become the dominant force in a region.
And, concerning their supposed "backward" military, is that not precisely what they are trying to solve by getting the bomb? If they are the only nuclear power int he region (excepting Israel), who cares how backwards their military is?
Even if they don't have the bomb, they are backward only when compared to the US or other first rate militaries. By the standards of the region, they are a competent, if slightly backward military, but with a sufficient edge in manpower it does not matter. In any event, they seem to prefer acting through subversion and proxy wars, so their military power is secondary to their economic and recruiting abilities, which seem to be first rate.
And as far as fighting the US is concerned, of course they know they will lose, but that is not what they plan to do. They provoke the US to see how far we will let them go. of course they don't want a war with the US, but that doesn't mean they won't go to war with neighbors, or even accept a limited war with the US if it would suit their purposes. Don't forget that Saddam survived a war with the US and came out with a lot of prestige for having done so. If they think they can strike a fatal blow against a rival, such as Saudi Arabia, or maybe successfully install a puppet in Iraq, they will do so even if it means some temporary hardships outlasting the US in a conflict. It isn't as if popular opinion matters in elections where the candidates have to be vetted by the mullahs first.
So, as usual, this story is a bit off base. It fits well with those having
boundless confidence in the power of talk, but it really doesn't match with reality very well. In that respect, it seems the perfect symbol for the Obama campaign.
POSTSCRIPT
One thing this theory overlooks is that, if Iran doesn't want war with the US, then the threat of war is a valuable diplomatic tool. By taking it
off the table, Obama is essentially giving Iran free reign in the region, as only Israel, Turkey and Pakistan have the military might in the region to oppose them. Israel is too distant and small for a protracted war, Turkey is more interested int he Kurdish issues on the Iraqi border and Pakistan is beset with internal problems. As long as Iran sticks to modest goals, such as installing puppets in small nations which do not threaten Turkey or Pakistan, they can probably do so with impunity if the US is out of the picture. Israel may threaten action, but it is so easy to turn world opinion against Israel and paint them as the aggressor, that likely they will be able to do little.
In short, Obama's plan of talk without threats is a sure fire way to hand a large chunk of the middle east to Iran.