Posted by
Andrews on Wednesday, July 30, 2008 2:10:56 PM
Originally I planned to include this in a comprehensive post on oil related demagoguery, but work has been crazy, so just a quick note.
In my doctor's office yesterday I saw a
National Geographic piece on peak oil predictions.And two things struck me.
First, all the predictions cited were based on the work of a single man who predicted US peak oil would be reached in the 1970's. The problem is, that while US oil production peaked in the1970's it had nothing to do with technical issues.
As I explained before, Nixon's price controls were to blame. Though they were eventually removed by Reagan, by that time environmental madness had limited oil production. In other words, his prediction of a technical peak was confirmed by a political limitation. So, in short, the man whose work is the basis of all peak oil predictions, is just wrong.
Second, the man who is predicting a plateau of Saudi oil and then a falling off, did precisely what
I claim is at the basis of all incorrect predictions. He looked at currently known reserves and predicted they would run out. Of course they will. That is why we look for new reserves. Does he really think we have found all the oil in the earth? If not, then his predictions will prove wrong.
It is a bit sad to see such bad science touted by a respectable magazine. On the other hand, it is nice to see
my theories proved correct. (And they did have some pretty pictures of sea life, which made up for the utterly absurd piece on peak oil.)