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The Standard of Proof

I have read many people, and heard many politicians, argue that "more oil won't lower prices." Now, as the basic law of economics is that, all things being equal, greater supply lowers prices, I have to ask, how can they say this? Some try to argue that the oil might lower prices just not "US prices", but as there is a worldwide market, it is impossible to see how prices could be lowered in one market and not lower prices elsewhere.

But then again, I don't have to show it. And that is my point.

You see, the rule in arguments is that extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. And claiming that oil does not follow the laws f supply and demand seems to be the very textbook definition of an extraordinary claim. Which means, though they act as if it were self-evident, it is incumbent on those saying more oil won't lower prices to provide some pretty convincing proof that their assertions are correct.

Not that I expect them to offer it. More likely the argument will be something like "The reason more supply won't lower prices is...Sorry, some evil speculators int he pay of Big Oil stole my proof! See how evil they are!"

But for the rest of us, who get no political mileage out of maligning "big oil" or scapegoating "speculators", I have to request that the next time you hear someone claim more supply won't change prices, ask them why, and, more than that, refuse to accept anything short of actual proof. If enough people start to do this we may actually see this silly assertion vanish once and for all.

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