Posted by
Andrews on Sunday, September 21, 2008 5:06:36 PM
I know it is bad form to rely on personal anecdotes to draw conclusions about the economy at large, but I was checking my investments and noticed that it appears last week's panic is already subsiding. After losing about 3% of value over the course of last week, they are now up 7% from that low. I have to conclude that the media-inspired panic, as anticipated, has died down, people have begun to realize a few failed commercial banks will not affect their lives significantly, and jumped back into the market, picking up some bargain basement stocks.
This must come as bad news to Obama. Barring another round of bank failures, I expect the market to recover rather speedily, and, with a lot of the bad mortgage dead weight having been purged from the economy, I think the fourth quarter will prove the strongest of the year. And if things pan out as I anticipate, that will mean yet another possible campaign issue will be off the table.
With no defeat in Iraq, no escalation in Afghanistan, oil prices steadily dropping, the housing market stabilizing, and now the stock market back on its feet, Obama is running out of issues. And with Al Qaida showing its hand with some overseas bombings, he is in truly bad shape. First, those bombing show al Qaida is still alive and a threat, and thus defense is still essential, but they also have not struck in the US, proving Bush's plans, including his invasion of Iraq, is working.
It looks like the next few weeks will be bad ones for Obama. Well, he can always pray a bomb goes off inside the US, or the stock market collapses, because otherwise he really has little hope left.