Posted by
Andrews on Tuesday, October 07, 2008 10:24:05 AM
As I seem bent on telling all my regular readers they are
deluded paranoiacs -- honestly, that isn't my intention, but it seems that it comes across that way no matter what I do -- I have decided to drop my previous topic and move on to more positive and happy topics.
It appears my prediction is coming to pass, and following his little bump when the media unilaterally declared him the winner of the debate, Obama's numbers are once again dropping as they did following the European love fest. Even if he enjoys a new bump following the second debate, which is not guaranteed, this suggests Obama's gains are ephemeral media creations. Which also suggests they reflect name recognition more than true support.
Since those who base their support on name recognition aren't exactly dedicated political animals, I have to think that those fluctuating back and forth are not likely to vote, no matter what they report to poll takers. That being the case, it appears that the race is pretty much evenly divided, possibly slightly slanted one way or the other, but not to a significant degree.
Then again, that too may be misleading. It is quite possible that many Democrats are claiming support for Obama, especially when polled by Democrats or those whose slant appears to make them Democrats, while secretly planning on voting across party lines, or not voting. There is strong pressure within the Democrats to close ranks, much stronger than among Republicans, and that can strongly skew polls. The fact that Obama's polling months ago showed a 15% crossover vote was a very bad sign, and it still is. That those voters no longer report themselves as such does not mean they have changed their minds, but could only mean friends have bullied them into keeping quiet about it.
But we will see in November. I still say that Obama's inability to hold on to even a pathetically small lead bodes very ill for his campaign. And, if, as I expect, this economic "crisis" begins to show signs of fading from the public consciousness, the numbers could go very strongly in McCain's favor very quickly.