Posted by
Andrews on Saturday, October 11, 2008 12:30:39 AM
What shocks me more than anything, as we come closer to election day, is how many conservatives are believing media hype predicting an Obama victory. What happened to conservatives? Every election the media (along with academics) predicts a Democrat victory. They predicted
a Gore victory, a
Kerry victory, there was even a period in July of 1988 when they predicted
a Dukakis victory. So why are we buying into predictions of Obama's impending victory?
The truth is, the polls, slanted as they may be, show a weak campaign. Starting with impressive advantages, an unpopular president, a long and relatively unpopular war, a sluggish economy even before the crash, a burst housing bubble, rising unemployment, high gas prices, and a president with almost nonexistent approval numbers, all topped off by a media actively working in his favor, covering up errors, failing to cover criticisms, refusing to investigate any improprieties and providing him with 24 hour coverage during his tour of Europe, and the best he could do was a one day lead of 9% during the high point of his European tour. And the rest of the time he never got more than a 2 or 3 point lead.
Worse still, before the economic problems that the press has talked into the next great depression, he actually started to lose to McCain in the polls. And even after the crash, he still can only pull ahead by 2 or 3 points, and that begins to evaporate as soon as he hits the 3 point mark. The man cannot hold on to a lead.
Yet the supposedly conservative pundits simply accept the word of the media that this man is destined to win? From the numbers, and given the evidence that the media is in the bag for him, it seems far more likely fame, name recognition and a bit of star appeal are skewing the polls in his favor. But even with that he can't gain a solid lead.
That suggests that, rather than a landslide, Obama is going to make a rather pathetic showing.
But we will see in November.