Posted by
Andrews on Thursday, February 26, 2009 2:04:37 AM
I know many will disagree with me on this, but I hope the Republicans don't retake congress in 2010.
Well, let me clarify. Part of me hopes we do, to minimize Obama's opportunity to do harm. But on the other hand, by winning, we may just give him an additional four years.
Back before the election many on the right were arguing a Democrat president might so upset America we would have a rerun of 1994. I thought it unlikely, and still do. We just don't have the pool of prominent true conservatives we had then, and we would likely get a GOP congress full of RINOs instead.
However, even if I am wrong, it may be a bad thing.
Think back to 1994, Clinton was in free fall, or close to it. Hillarycare had flopped, people were unhappy with the direction of government, most of the big government initiatives had either been abandoned due to public outcry, or enacted and drawn even more ire. And so the Republicans retook the congress.
What happened next? Clinton blamed them for shutting down the government. And took credit for welfare reform. Through a combination of using Republicans as scapegoats for his own failings, and claiming credit for their successes, Clinton stopped his decline and won a second term.
And likely that will happen again.
Look at our circumstances. The economy will recover on its own in the next two years. It was already recovering before fear of Obama's supposed stimulus tanked the stock market. So it is likely, even with all the abuse Obama will heap on the economy, things will be somewhat better by 2010, not perfect, as Obama plans massive inflation and spending, but improving. And, on the flip side, all of Obama's inflation, regulation and big government programs will be in place, but their harm will probably not yet be felt. Inflation may start inflicting some damage, especially if public fear sets us along the hyperinflation course, but not enough that the public at large will be able to distinguish the inflationary harm form the lingering recession.
That should be enough to give Republicans congress, but taking over may be the worst thing that could happen.
If Republicans win congress, then when the real harm starts to be felt in 2011 or 2012, Obama can blame congress. He can point to any slight gains in 2009 or 2010, and then argue his plan was working until an obstructionist congress got in the way. If his health care plans fail to work as promised, he can blame lack of funding. If the economy tanks, he can blame congress for not enacting his additional "reforms". A Republican congress gives him the perfect whipping boy. Not only that, but if congress does manage to stop the worst of Obama's abuses, sets the economy on the path to recovery, gets out of the way to let things fix themselves, just like Clinton, Obama will take the credit.
So, while it may be a good thing to take congress and stop Obama, it may do more harm than good by handing him four more year in which to cause harm. Admittedly, with a Republican congress he will have less scope than with Democrats, but if 1994 taught us anything it is that even the most idealistic Republicans can be induced to sell out.
No, far better to give him free rein for four years and then let Republicans take everything than give him four more years, even with a Republican congress.