Posted by
Andrews on Friday, April 17, 2009 12:11:25 PM
Both the believers and skeptics about global warming can now rest easy, I have invented a perfect model of the weather, one anyone can use, and which reproduces the systems involved with absolute fidelity. Don't believe me? Read on and see for yourself. For once, we can truly say the debate is over, and both sides will have to agree.
The problem, as I mentioned in "
The Limits of "Scientific" Management" is that the system is incredibly complex and we do not yet understand the impact of all the factors. For example, how will plant growth or ocean warming effect carbon dioxide levels? How much carbon will be deposited in shells of marine life? And going beyond the Earth itself, how to solar cycles effect the weather? And, as we don't full understand solar cycles, how does the rest of the universe impact solar cycles?
My solution is simple, and obvious. I have modeled every single object in the universe, giving it the same behavior as it demonstrates in real life. Of course, being so massive, I had no choice but to the use the universe itself as the model. It runs at a 1:1 time compression ratio, but the results are 100% accurate. Unlike every existing model I have not yet had to once adjust the results to match the real world data. (I couldn't even if I wanted to, as it only runs in a positive direction with regard to time.)
If you want to see the results for yourself, I invite you to use my model. Say you want to know the weather for a certain location tomorrow. The process is simple, wait 24 hours then go to that location in the model (that is, the universe itself), and you will see the weather. 100% accuracy so far!
Obviously, this is a bit sarcastic, but that is the point. Any system sufficiently complicated, be it the economy or the weather, is nearly impossible to reasonably model. Not only do models introduce simplifications which obscure real differences between reality and the model, but things we do not understand cannot be modeled, and so their effects are ignored, often with the result of the model diverging from reality.
That is not to say that models can't be useful. I can design a model of say a system of gears, and not worry about the chemical makeup, the interaction oft he individual molecules, the weather, and so on. However, such a model will be useful for only some purposes. It may help me understand how the gears interact, but if someone then makes the real gears out of felt, the reality may not behave like the model, as the assumptions of the model do not match reality. Likewise, by ignoring many factors the model may not predict many events, such as wear, breakage, even swelling due to temperature changes.
And that is my problem with plans to run the economy "scientifically", a well as arguments that declare the debate about global warming is "over". In both cases, the certainty is based on very limited models which contain absurd oversimplifications. While such models may be useful for determining a general trend, or predicting gross changes in direction, using them to run the economy, or declare a scientific question settled is simply absurd.
As my parody shows,t he only model which will provide an entirely accurate model of any phenomenon is the universe itself. Any other model will be a simplification, with the inherent uncertainty. Now, some models are sufficiently accurate to be useful for a limited purpose. But never will there be a model adequate to either declare a scientific question 100% settled, as the assumptions built into a model are themselves open to challenge, making the model an invalid means of declaring the question closed.
And likewise, no model will ever exist adequate to run an economy. As I explained
in my earlier post, the economy is simply too complex and human valuation too resistant to quantification for any model to adequately represent the interaction of all the forces in the market, at least represent it well enough to allow scientific management. Nor will such efforts ever produce better results than the
chaotic, unmanaged free market.