Posted by
Andrews on Friday, May 01, 2009 3:20:27 PM
For some time I have been saying that once Obama has given them what they want, the upper leadership of the Democrats in congress will begin to split with him. After all, his plans mainly amount to aggrandizing the executive at the expensive of the legislative, and many of his proposals will prove risky, or downright dangerous, for those facing 2010 reelection, so it only makes sense to toss him aside once they have everything they want. And it really has no cost, as he still needs congress, so they can always wrest new concessions in exchange for passing some of his least damaging pet projects.
Well, I forgot one other group which is likely to jump ship first. The blue dog Democrats. Despite the claims of those on the left that conservatism is dead and Obama's election marks the triumph of the left, the large number of blue dog Democrats, who need to appear far to the right of their party to stay in office says differently. And they have already started to leave the Obama camp. Just check out
the numbers by which Obama's housing bill was defeated.
Actually, this came a bit earlier than I had expected, as I thought the revolt would come from the top. I expected Pelosi and company would wait until the end of 2009 before splitting completely. All of which is a rather positive sign. Sure, the Republicans will be
blamed for "obstructionism", while the blue dogs will be quietly overlooked, but on a positive note, it means that Obama will have a hard time passing the most damaging measures such as cap and trade, socialized medicine and so on.