Posted by
Andrews on Saturday, May 02, 2009 12:55:38 PM
I hate to be proven right in this case, but I am afraid I do find myself saying "I told you so" once more.
Back during the general election, a number of people proposed the "winning by losing" strategy. They argued that if McCain lost it would prove the RINOs were a losing wing of the party and push the Republicans right. At the time, I reminded everyone how poorly "sending a message" worked out in 2006, the proof being we ended up with McCain in 2008. My logic was that people would not see the moderate Republicans losing, but instead see the left winning. My argument was that the general public simplify, see the two parties as "right" and "left" regardless of true alignment. So if Obama lost, it would once and for put an end to leftist politics in America, or at least set them back for a long, long time. On the other hand, McCain's loss would be seen as a loss for the right, and push the Republicans to the left.
Well, guess what? Has nobody noticed all the Republicans arguing that "the old ways are done"? "Tax cuts aren't enough"? and "We need to be FOR something"? How about "we can't be the party of 'no'"? Granted, many of the lines come from the Obama camp, but they have been picked up by a lot of people on the right, who are avidly trying to push the party leftward, just a I predicted.
Now, I grant there is a backlash, or rather two.
First, there are some local successes for more conservative factions, such as the Pennsylvania uprising which pushed out Specter. But that, far from being the outcome of this election, has been in the cards for some time. Rather than a result of McCain's loss, it is the last gasp of the old guard. Granted, with Specter's dramatic departure, it has given conservatives (myself included) some hope, but the truth is that we will have an uphill battle, as the comments I quoted show. Far too many of the Republican rank and file believe the "far right" is a lost cause. And that means any push to the right has to overcome a very strong perception that the public in general do not want conservative issues raised. it is a mistaken perception, but that doesn't matter. Many in the party think the right has lost.
Second, the conservatives, or the "economic conservatives" if you prefer, those for small government and economic libertarianism, have to struggle as well against a resurgent "paleo-con" wing. The paleo-cons have adopted the line that the right didn't lose, it was the "neo-cons" and "libertarians", and the party needs to return instead to the paleo-con, protectionist, authoritarian social conservative roots, rather than the more free market conservatism that has predominated in recent times. Not that they have much chance of taking control of the party, but their rhetoric just adds to the voices declaring economic conservatism dead.
Of course, there is hope. Quite a bit actually. As I said elsewhere, Obama is likely to falter, make some idiotic moves, trash the economy, and hand the presidency back tot he Republicans. And if he does that, that gives the economic conservatives a chance to present their case one more time. The deck is slightly stacked against them, but they have the chance.
The only thing I fear is that the Congress will turn against Obama too soon, rob him of the chance to truly blunder, and leave the lesson incomplete. Either that, or Republicans will take congress in 2010, leaving a scapegoat for the outcomes of Obama's disastrous policies.
I suppose we will have to wait and see.
POSTSCRIPT
The following posts elaborate upon the current party line that the Republicans must move left and "be FOR something" in order to win:
The Big Lie
The Big Lie Part II
The Party of 'No'?
A Question
The following posts were written during the election, arguing that McCain's loss would push the party left:
Jacob Frank and Hillary Clinton
A Difficult Decision
Abandoning the Party
"Selling Out"
Forget Hope, Try Realism
To Make It Very Simple
Why We Need Adults
One More Reason Not To Sit It Out
Covering Old Ground Again
The Carter Analogy
Learning Too Much From History
Single Issue Voting
At last
Third Party Problems
Why I am a Republican
I also wrote the following about the possibility of Democrats abandoning Obama:
Easy to Explain
Confirmation
Strange Bedfellows
The Future
And It Starts
And I wrote about the paleo-con putsch in the following posts:
Misplaced Blame and A Power Play
Remember I Predicted It
Finally, I wrote about the Specter defection in "
Specter Rumors
" and "
I Disagree with the WSJ", and I wrote about the possibility of using a Republican congress in 2010 as a scapegoat in "
It Sounds Strange".
POSTSCRIPT II
By the way, if anyone actually reads anything linked above, note how closely Obama is adhering to predictions he would be the next Carter. Just read "
The Carter Analogy", "
Carter or Clinton?" and "
Something to Ponder" and then look at "
Buy High, Sell Low, The Obama Way", "
Flashback?" and "
Yet More Flashbacks".