Posted by
Andrews on Thursday, June 25, 2009 11:20:31 AM
In "
The Future" I predicted that Obama may face an uprising among congressional Democrats, especially if his economic plans fail to produce results. My theory at the time was that the Democrats in congress, especially int he house, would support Obama for a time, to get as many concessions as they could, but once his positions appeared to lose popularity, they would turn on him and begin to seriously oppose Obama in order to cement their own reelections.
Looking at
Matt Towery's most recent article, I was both right and wrong, at least in North Carolina. Now, granted, North Carolina may not be representative of the nation as a whole, and this poll is a bit earlier than I expected such a revolt to take place, to the fact that the polls does not show what I predicted to happen in early to mid 2010 is not a real refutation of my predictions. Still, it shows that I was right, but right for the wrong reasons, at least as of mid-2009.
Voters have yet to lose their faith in Obama, at least if the support numbers in North Carolina are to be believed. However, voters do seem opposed to Obama's positions*, especially on health care. Though I was wrong in thinking the uprising would be economic in origin and would come about because of a loss of faith in Obama, it seems that a revolt is int he cards nonetheless. If Obama continues to push for policies which are unpopular in states where Democrats face reelection then he is likely to face not just a lack of support, but maybe even active opposition by Democrats fighting for reelection in states where they are unpopular.
And that could bode ill for Obama. One of his greatest assets has been the media's willingness to avoid criticizing him, but if the congress starts attacking him, that may not be the case for much longer. No matter how partisan the media might be, they cannot ignore the congressional leadership, and they are unlikely to dismiss Pelosi or Reid's criticisms as readily as they do those of the right. A Democrat uprising could also spell the end of the media's position as the front line in Obama's PR campaign, and the general public may gradually become aware of some of the shortcomings of the administration.
Of course there is over a year before the midterm elections, so things may still change. It is quite possible we could add the economic disappointment I predicted to the mix, making things even worse for the administration. Or perhaps polls will change and the popularity of health care reform, in its present shape, will rise. It is never safe to make predictions this far out.
So all I will say is this: If things stay the same as they are now, Obama may face some serious opposition from present allies, and the second half of this term as president may be much less comfortable for him than the first half has been so far.
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* I have seen this before, but it is never ceases to amaze me. The voters oppose Obama's beliefs, but support him. I call it the "American Idol" school of politics, we "like Obama" even though we oppose everything for which he stands. It isn't common enough in politics to worry about, mainly because very few individuals in politics are likable enough to make it an issue, but when it happens it is always a bit surprising.
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POSTSCRIPT
If you are curious what this means for the Republicans, I would recommend reading the posts "
I Told You So!", "
Winning By Losing? Not A Chance!" and "
Why Obama Won, And Why He Is Losing Support Now".