Posted by
Andrews on Thursday, July 09, 2009 10:01:16 AM
I wrote before that the congress will back Obama so long as two facts remain true, so long as they have something to gain and so long as his numbers remain high. Well, they got their $400 billion budget and some bones thrown to them in the bailout package, so that half is done. It is unlikely "Bailout Part 2" is coming soon, so the gravy train is done for the time being. And now,
according to Rassmussen, Obama has officially more negatives than positives.
As I wrote in "
Easy to Explain", "
Strange Bedfellows" and "
The Future", Obama's promises were great for elections, but bad for actually holding office. It was inevitable he would upset either his liberal base or the moderates and conservatives. Unfortunately for him, by not fulfilling his far left promises (eg. withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan)
AND failing to restore the economy, he has disappointed both. Nor has his change in tone, as I described in "
Why Obama Won, And Why He Is Losing Support Now", helped his cause. With 2010 looming large in congressional minds, it seems likely his support is about to evaporate very quickly, as congressmen seek to avoid being smeared by opponents as Obama's lapdogs or having economic woes blamed on
THEIR president.
I have written before, in "
It Sounds Strange", that this may be a bad thing, as we could end up handing him a second term by giving him a scapegoat, but I think I am more positive now. First, because we need this victory to head off the most destructive of medical reform plans, as I wrote in "
Health Care Plan". Second, because, as I wrote in "
Winning By Losing? Not A Chance!", even if we vote in relatively moderate Republicans, a victory is still a victory, and, as I wrote in "
Some Confirmation", signs are that attempts to push the party left, described in "
I Told You So!" and elsewhere, are slowly fading and those seeking a move rightward are gaining ground. So, despite some earlier concerns, I am optimistic that 2010 will be a good year.
POSTSCRIPT
Earlier, I used the conclusions from a smaller poll and wrote "
Polls Both Confirm and Refute My Predicitons" arguing that the numbers had made me change my opinion. These newer national numbers make me think that my original conclusions were correct and North Carolina's poll numbers were either an aberration or the result of a bad poll.
UPDATE
Note, the poll is of "likely voters". Polls of all adults give Obama more favorable results. On the other hand, current polls of generic congressional races among likely voters currently give Republicans an edge. As the party in office usually loses seats in midterms, that is not surprising, but it does give me confidence that this poll is close to accurate.
One other item of interest is that the poll shows strong opposition to a second stimulus. That will weigh heavily on congressmen facing reelection in 2010, both when considering more bailouts and when considering whether to support other big initiatives, such as health care reform. In general, I would expect to see no big Obama initiatives until 2011, or else those that he does try failing to find broad support.