Posted by
Andrews on Monday, July 13, 2009 12:45:24 PM
I have been reading many articles arguing that the recent problems in Iran highlight rifts among the clerics, between Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad and between other factions, and all of that is quite true. However, many articles then take that grain of truth and draw from it completely unwarranted conclusions, assuming that this or that cleric is truly a revolutionary reformer, or that the strife among the various powers will lead to real reform.
The problem is that there are two struggles. First, the very real yearning for freedom among the Iranian people. Second, power struggles among the various groups who rule the nation, and that includes Mousavi's power play, for, though he is called a "reformer", he is not exactly an opponent of the regime.
Unfortunately, by the two struggles overlapping, the good struggle is losing out and the power play between various factions is taking center stage. Rather than real reform, it appears far more likely we will get some faction latching on to legitimate grievances, and using that energy to push their own agenda.
Not that this is unique. In the French Revolution, many factions used disgust with the aristocracy or monarchy to push their own agenda, from Robespierre to Napoleon, they grabbed popular reform movements and redirected them to suit their own ends. Similarly, late in World War II, Himmler tried, unsuccessfully, to pose as a possible leader of insurrection against Hitler, though his goal was less reform and more about saving his skin while cementing his position.
There are countless examples of popular movements being coöpted in this way, and, from all the reports, it seems the Iranian unrest is yet one more example, be it the struggle between Mousavi and Ahmadinejad, or between the president and Rafsanjani. Or the struggle between the ruling clerics and less influential clerics centered in Qom. It seems that once the problems started, every faction saw it as a chance to settle scores and take out the opposition.
Unfortunately, history does teach us one lesson. Once a popular movement gets coöpted in this way there is one sure loser, and that is the popular movement itself. Which means, much as I hate to say it, I don't foresee much real reform in Iran any time soon.